Brisk Wind Advisory 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU FEB 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOWER 48 WEST COAST RIDGE
STRETCHING NORTH TO BARROW. AT THE SURFACE A VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING
LOW IS HEADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF COOK INLET WHILE A STRONG
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF COAST. IN THE WEST A
LOW IS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEN THE
NAM CONTINUES ITS RECENT TREND OF BEING SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH
THE REST OF THE MODELS. FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GFS SOLUTION.

MOST ACTION TODAY IS OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN. LOW MOVING TOWARD COOK
INLET WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL HAVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR THE
NORTH GULF COAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG TO
HIGH WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
SNOW...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...OR AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW AFFECTING
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM...THOMPSON PASS...AND THE KENAI PENINSULA INTO
THE EVENING. SNOW WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE INTERIOR ZONES
ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT SNOW IN ANCHORAGE.

ALTHOUGH SOME ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT EVENT...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND WARMER. STRONG WIND WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOULD
BE REPRESENTATIVE OF NORTH GULF COAST CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY WHEN COLD AIR RETURNS AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO
SNOW.

IN THE WEST...AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TRACKS TOWARD
EASTERN RUSSIA BY SAT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PRIBILOFS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
BUT INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW AND FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN.

EXCEPT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN SYSTEM REACHING
BRISTOL BAY AND THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. AS THE SECOND LOW AND FRONT MOVE PAST KODIAK ISLAND SUN...A
WEAK TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE SECOND LOW NEAR KODIAK WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER
THE NORTH GULF COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. EXCEPT SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN DOMAIN BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA LATE SUN. THE NEXT LOW SPREADS STRONG WIND AND SNOW
INTO THE CENTRAL ISLANDS LATE SUN AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BERING TO THE BERING STRAIT MON. THIS MOTION WILL BRING SNOW AND
STRONG WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MON MORNING.

YET ANOTHER LOW REACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE EVENING WITH RAIN
AND WIND FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CHAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND...101 125 135
         BLIZZARD...25
MARINE...STORM...120
         GALE...125 129 130 132 150 160 165 170 172 179

FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS FEB 06