Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 012051
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
151 PM MST MON AUG 1 2005

AZC023-012100-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-050801T2100Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
151 PM MST MON AUG 1 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 144 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NOGALES...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TUMACACORI...RIO RICO AND PENA BLANCA LAKE.

LAT...LON 3134 11082 3151 11084 3158 11111 3134 11111

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
825 AM MST MON AUG 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA IN A MONSOON FLOW PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO MAY BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN PLENTIFUL FOR A DAILY BOUT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FROM
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A MORE EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IS OVER CENTRAL SONORA. SEVERAL FACTORS AT PLAY WITH TODAYS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION
A LATE START TO THE ACTIVITY WOULD SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-BENSON-SIERRA VISTA LINE. THIS
COULD SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TO GO ALONG WITH LEFT OVER OUTFLOWS FROM YESTERDAY. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL SONORA WHICH SHOULD
PROPAGATE NORTH OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THIS MORNING TUS SOUNDING AND THIS IS BACKED UP BY
CURRENT SAT AND RADAR TRENDS. THE UPSHOT IS A RATHER ACTIVE DAY IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY AND IT MAY START EARLIER THAN MOST DAYS WITH
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. IF THIS CLUSTER DOES INDEED SHIFT NORTH
TODAY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH FOCUSED ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND
HAS SHIFTED A BIT WEST...OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW...BUT MAY INCREASE POPS IF CLUSTER FROM
THE SOUTH EDGES CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH RH VALUES
TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
BE REDUCED SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A FAVORABLE MONSOON
FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AFTER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS. AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC DISCUSSION...SHOEMAKER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...SHOEMAKER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1230 PM MST MON AUG 01 2005

AZZ033>035-020700-
COCHISE COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-
1230 PM MST MON AUG 01 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE AND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES IN ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...CONDITIONS MORE UNSTABLE VERSUS YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVER
HAS BURNED AWAY...WITH SUNSHINE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG
WINDS OR HAIL.  LIKE  YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
IS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL SONORA HAS PUSHED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-BENSON-SIERRA VISTA
LINE HAVE LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZIATION. FLASH FLOODING SEEMS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY...WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-029>032-020700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1230 PM MST MON AUG 01 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...CONDITIONS MORE UNSTABLE VERSUS YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVER
HAS BURNED AWAY...WITH SUNSHINE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG
WINDS OR HAIL.  LIKE  YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
IS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL SONORA HAS PUSHED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-BENSON-SIERRA VISTA
LINE HAVE LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. FLASH FLOODING SEEMS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY...WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SHOEMAKER