Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 012300
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 PM MST MON AUG 1 2005

AZC019-012310-
PIMA AZ-
400 PM MST MON AUG 1 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS 
EXPIRED...

AT 357 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAD DIMINISHED GREATLY ACROSS SOUTH 
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE 
RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION 
HAS COME TO AN END. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH 
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST. 

HOWEVER...HEAVY RUNOFF IN STREAMS AND WASHES WILL CONTINUE DURING 
THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEREFORE A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD 
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA 
COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM MST TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPIRED.

LAT...LON 3167 11210 3151 11161 3187 11160 3191 11193

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 012353
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
448 PM MST MON AUG 1 2005

AZC019-020100-
PIMA AZ-
448 PM MST MON AUG 1 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM MST FOR NORTHWESTERN
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 445 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN 
AREAS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF AJO. RAINFALL ESTIMATES EXCEEDED 2 
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED PORTIONS OF 
HIGHWAY 85 REMAINED CLOSED BETWEEN MILE POST 60 AND 80.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO 
FLOODED AREAS.

LAT...LON 3214 11330 3201 11301 3199 11269 3250 11244
      3251 11328

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST MON AUG 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA IN A MONSOON FLOW PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO MAY BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN PLENTIFUL FOR A DAILY BOUT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY BUSY AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS...WITH FLASH FLOOD
THREAT MAIN CONCERN. MCV FROM YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN CWA HAS INTERACTED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM
SONORA AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF CREATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. TO THE EAST STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING IN
DRIER AIR...BUT ALSO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM WIND THREAT. CURRENT
TRENDS WOULD SHOW TSTM CLUSTER MERGER OVER WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY...WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS EVENING.

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED FORECAST...WITH
TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. SHOULD
SEE FLASH FLOOD THREAT DIMINISH SOME AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH
FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP A BIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH RH VALUES
TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY BE REDUCED SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A FAVORABLE
MONSOON FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AFTER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS. AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE.....JULY HIGHLIGHTS...
...ALL-TIME WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD...
...WARMEST AND 11TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD...
...2ND LATEST START TO THE ANNUAL MONSOON...
...LONGEST STRETCH WITH HIGHS OF 100 DEGREES OR GREATER...

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC DISCUSSION...SHOEMAKER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...SHOEMAKER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1230 PM MST MON AUG 01 2005

AZZ033>035-020700-
COCHISE COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-
1230 PM MST MON AUG 01 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE AND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES IN ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...CONDITIONS MORE UNSTABLE VERSUS YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVER
HAS BURNED AWAY...WITH SUNSHINE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG
WINDS OR HAIL.  LIKE  YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
IS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL SONORA HAS PUSHED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-BENSON-SIERRA VISTA
LINE HAVE LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZIATION. FLASH FLOODING SEEMS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY...WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-029>032-020700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1230 PM MST MON AUG 01 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...CONDITIONS MORE UNSTABLE VERSUS YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVER
HAS BURNED AWAY...WITH SUNSHINE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG
WINDS OR HAIL.  LIKE  YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
IS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL SONORA HAS PUSHED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-BENSON-SIERRA VISTA
LINE HAVE LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. FLASH FLOODING SEEMS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY...WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SHOEMAKER