Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

January 12, 2005Adair County, Oklahoma; Crawford County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jan 12, 2005, 5:32 PM CST for Adair County, Oklahoma; Crawford County, Arkansas. It was in force for 39 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 12, 2005, 5:32 PM CST (23:32 UTC)
Expired
Feb 21, 2005, 2:45 AM CST
In force
39 days
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Crawford County, AR, Adair County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jan 12, 3:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr
Jan 12, 3:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2005-01-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 145 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2005-01-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 453 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
145 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-298 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1135 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
453 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
456 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 122332
SVRTSA
OKC001-130015-
/X.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0004.050112T2332Z-050113T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 531 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
  TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARIETTA...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...STILWELL...
  MARIETTA...CHRISTIE...BARON AND WESTVILLE.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3586 9481 3569 9470 3581 9450 3595 9453
      3611 9453

$$
3 follow-up statements
000 
WUUS54 KTSA 210748
SVRTSA
ARC033-210845-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0004.050221T0748Z-050221T0845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
148 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 245 AM CST

* AT 143 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
  AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF LEE CREEK TO 4 MILES WEST OF
  CEDARVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RUDY...CHESTER
  AND MOUNTAINBURG.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3573 9391 3573 9396 3571 9396 3570 9398
      3567 9398 3566 9407 3558 9408 3558 9402
      3554 9404 3551 9445 3559 9445 3576 9438
      3576 9389

$$
000 
WWUS54 KTSA 210802
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
202 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

ARC033-210845-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-050221T0845Z/
CRAWFORD AR-
202 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 245 AM CST FOR
CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 158 AM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED PENNY
SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF MT GAYLER TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RUDY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RUDY...
CHESTER...MOUNTAINBURG...MT GAYLER...LOCKE AND BIDVILLE.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3573 9391 3573 9396 3571 9396 3570 9398
      3567 9398 3566 9407 3558 9408 3558 9402
      3554 9404 3551 9445 3559 9445 3576 9438
      3576 9389

$$
000 
WWUS54 KTSA 210842
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

ARC033-210852-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-050221T0845Z/
CRAWFORD AR-
242 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY EXPIRES AT 245
AM CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3573 9391 3573 9396 3571 9396 3570 9398
      3567 9398 3566 9407 3558 9408 3558 9402
      3554 9404 3551 9445 3559 9445 3576 9438
      3576 9389

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jan 12, 5:22 PM CST, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 12, 5:22 PM CST, 10 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
522 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

BACKED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PROMOTING CELL-TO-CELL INTERACTIONS AND
RESULTING IN DECREASED POTENTIAL FOR DESCRETE SUPERCELLS.  AS THE
STONGER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST A COMPLETE EVOLUTION TO A
SCQUALL LINE WILL OCCUR.  WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS QUICKLY EVOLVING TOWARD SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND REPORTS.
HOWEVER...0 TO 1 KM SHEAR REMAINS VERY HIGH IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
THE EASTERN TIER OF OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO FROM
A BOWING LINE SEGMENT / EMBEDDED SUPERCELL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

WHILE LINE SEGMENTS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...THE OVERALL EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE LINE WILL BE LESS...SO THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED SOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE LINE.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 12, 1:00 PM CST, 4 hours 32 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
EAST FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OFF TO THE WEST.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...AND
WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AND EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A STRAIGHT
LINE WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AS TIME PASSES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAD BEEN
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE LESS INTENSE AND JUST
GLANCE THE AREA...THEREFORE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 12, 3:03 PM CST, 2 hours 29 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

OKZ049-053>076-130400-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-
PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-
303 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 2 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.
Special weather statement, Jan 12, 3:29 PM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-130400-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
WASHINGTON AR-
329 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 3 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 10 PM.
Local storm report, Jan 12, 4:54 PM CST, 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             5 NW COOKSON            35.76N 94.98W
01/12/2005  0.88 INCH        CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

SP
Special weather statement, Jan 12, 5:23 PM CST, 9 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

OKZ057-130000-
CRAIG OK-
523 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG

AT 523 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
WEST OF VINITA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VINITA...WHITE OAK...PYRAMID
CORNERS AND BLUEJACKET.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
Local storm report, Jan 12, 5:27 PM CST, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
527 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             4 SW WATTS              36.07N 94.62W
01/12/2005  0.88 INCH        ADAIR              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 12, 3:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee39 days
Jan 12, 4:14 PM CSTTornado WarningTSAMuskogee35 days
Jan 12, 4:25 PM CSTTornado WarningTSACherokee, Okfuskee, Sequoyah68 days
Jan 12, 4:40 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee2 hr
Jan 12, 4:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Choctaw39 days
Jan 12, 4:57 PM CSTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Okfuskee, Okmulgee68 days
Jan 12, 5:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSASequoyah39 days
Jan 12, 5:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Washington39 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2005Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2005Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.