Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

January 12, 2005Cherokee County, McIntosh County, Muskogee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jan 12, 2005, 3:58 PM CST for Cherokee County, McIntosh County, Muskogee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 39 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 12, 2005, 3:58 PM CST (21:58 UTC)
Expired
Feb 21, 2005, 2:00 AM CST
In force
39 days
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Cherokee County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jan 12, 3:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2005-01-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 145 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2005-01-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 453 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
145 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-298 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1135 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
453 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
456 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 122200
SVRTSA
OKC091-101-122245-
/X.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0001.050112T2158Z-050112T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
  MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 356 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
  TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARNER...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WARNER...
  KEEFETON...WEBBERS FALLS...BRAGGS...PUMPKIN CENTER AND FORT GIBSON.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3536 9555 3532 9537 3542 9510 3582 9514
      3581 9533

$$
4 follow-up statements
000 
WUUS54 KTSA 210654
SVRTSA
OKC021-210800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0001.050221T0654Z-050221T0800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 200 AM CST

* AT 1253 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. 
  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST
  OF HULBERT TO 15 MILES WEST OF WOODALL...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...
  PEGGS...WOODALL...TAHLEQUAH...COOKSON...ELDON AND SCRAPER.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3570 9481 3567 9512 3582 9513 3583 9526
      3586 9522 3591 9528 3595 9527 3597 9529
      3602 9522 3604 9522 3605 9520 3608 9520
      3612 9480

$$
000 
WWUS54 KTSA 210709
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
109 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

OKC021-210800-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050221T0800Z/
CHEROKEE OK-
109 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR
CHEROKEE COUNTY...

AT 108 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOST
CITY TO HULBERT TO 6 MILES WEST OF COOKSON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LOST CITY...
WOODALL...HULBERT...PEGGS...COOKSON...TAHLEQUAH...ELDON AND SCRAPER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IF NO 
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN 
AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


LAT...LON 3570 9481 3567 9512 3582 9513 3583 9526
      3586 9522 3591 9528 3595 9527 3597 9529
      3602 9522 3604 9522 3605 9520 3608 9520
      3612 9480

$$
000 
WWUS54 KTSA 210732
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
132 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

OKC021-210800-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050221T0800Z/
CHEROKEE OK-
132 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR
CHEROKEE COUNTY...

AT 132 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF ELDON TO 3 MILES EAST OF ELDON TO 14
MILES EAST OF COOKSON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST
CITY...COOKSON...PEGGS...TAHLEQUAH...ELDON AND SCRAPER.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3570 9481 3567 9512 3582 9513 3583 9526
      3586 9522 3591 9528 3595 9527 3597 9529
      3602 9522 3604 9522 3605 9520 3608 9520
      3612 9480

$$
000 
WWUS54 KTSA 210742
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
142 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

OKC021-210752-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050221T0800Z/
CHEROKEE OK-
142 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3570 9481 3567 9512 3582 9513 3583 9526
      3586 9522 3591 9528 3595 9527 3597 9529
      3602 9522 3604 9522 3605 9520 3608 9520
      3612 9480

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jan 12, 2:58 PM CST, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 12, 2:58 PM CST, 1 hour before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
258 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR
A  KCOU-KWLD-KCAO LINE IS POISED TO MAKE A MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN CO/NM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG A
DRY LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXITS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS CAPE
VALUES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 1000 J/KG WITH LI VALUES NEAR -4. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH THE WET
BULB ZERO NEAR 8 KFT. WIND GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY REACH 60 MPH WITH
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG LEVEL WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DISCREET SUPERCELLS. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE COLD AIR SPILLS IN THE REGION. SO...NO WINTRY PRECIP
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. WILL NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A DRY AND COLD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH SEVERAL RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
ONE SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHOT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL STAY AT OR BELOW MEX
GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    32   43   21   38 /  60   10    5    5
FSM    40   48   24   45 /  80   10    5    5
MLC    36   46   24   45 /  60   10    5    5
BVO    31   43   14   35 /  50   10    5    5
FYV    33   42   20   41 /  80   10    5    5
BYV    34   41   19   37 /  80   10    5    5
MKO    35   44   23   44 /  70   10    5    5
MIO    31   40   19   32 /  70   10    5    5
F10    33   44   23   44 /  60   10    5    5
HHW    42   51   27   47 /  70   10    5    5

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 12, 1:00 PM CST, 2 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
EAST FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OFF TO THE WEST.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...AND
WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...AND EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A STRAIGHT
LINE WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AS TIME PASSES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAD BEEN
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE LESS INTENSE AND JUST
GLANCE THE AREA...THEREFORE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 12, 3:03 PM CST, 55 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

OKZ049-053>076-130400-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-
PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-
303 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 2 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.
Special weather statement, Jan 12, 3:29 PM CST, 29 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-130400-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
WASHINGTON AR-
329 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 3 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 10 PM.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 12, 4:14 PM CSTTornado WarningTSAMuskogee35 days
Jan 12, 4:25 PM CSTTornado WarningTSACherokee, Okfuskee, Sequoyah68 days
Jan 12, 4:40 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee2 hr
Jan 12, 4:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Choctaw39 days
Jan 12, 4:57 PM CSTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Okfuskee, Okmulgee68 days
Jan 12, 5:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair39 days
Jan 12, 5:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSASequoyah39 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2005Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.