Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tulsa, OK

000
WWUS54 KTSA 220241
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
841 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKC037-220315-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-050322T0315Z/
CREEK OK-
841 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 PM CST FOR CREEK
COUNTY...

AT 836 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRISTOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...KELLYVILLE...
SILVER CITY...SAPULPA AND MANNFORD.

LAT...LON 3572 9671 3562 9653 3606 9604 3619 9648

$$

000
WWUS54 KTSA 220305
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKC037-220315-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-050322T0315Z/
CREEK OK-
905 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 PM CST FOR CREEK
COUNTY...

AT 902 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...KELLYVILLE...
SAPULPA AND MANNFORD.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3585 9658 3576 9637 3606 9604 3617 9642

$$

000
WWUS54 KTSA 220317
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
917 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKC037-220327-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-050322T0315Z/
CREEK OK-
917 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CREEK COUNTY EXPIRES AT 915 PM
CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
STORM.

LAT...LON 3585 9658 3576 9637 3606 9604 3617 9642

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
THE CELL MOVING INTO SEQUOYAH COUNTY IS ELEVATED NOW AS IT MOVES
INTO POSITIVE SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES AND A STRONG CAP
INDEX...HOWEVER THERE IS A PERSISTENT NARROW TONGUE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN MOST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.  THE STORM WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SOON.  FOR NOW IT HAS HAIL
POTENTIAL AND A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS OUT FOR IT.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRY AND FIRE OVER SOUTHERN PITTSBURG
COUNTY...AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...BUT WE THINK THE MOISTURE MAY HAVE
SHALLOWED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO HOLD BACK PERSISTENT CELLS...BUT WE
HAVE ONLY MARGINAL CONFIDENCE ON THIS.

THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER STORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE STACKED CYCLONE TO BUILD SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LIFT
SPREAD OVER THE MERGING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...BUT STRONG UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SYSTEM COULD STILL FOSTER
SOME NEW STORMS.  ANY NEW STORMS WOULD HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1255 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

SEE /OKCSPSTSA/ FOR DETAILS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA....PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET....AFTERNOON.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
        ONSET...AFTERNOON.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST WHILE A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 60 NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.  MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THEREFORE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IF THIS OCCURS...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
OF BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION...INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
731 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ074-220200-
HASKELL OK-
731 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN HASKELL

AT 731 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
WEST OF TAMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAMAHA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ072-220230-
SEQUOYAH OK-
732 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

AT 732 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VIAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SALLISAW...MC KEY...VIAN...
BRUSHY...SHORT...MARBLE CITY AND BOX.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
756 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ068-069-072-220300-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
756 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE AND SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 756 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM PROCTOR TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MC KEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...BUNCH...BARON...CHRISTIE...
PROCTOR...WESTVILLE...BALLARD...WATTS...MC KEY...BRUSHY...MARBLE CITY
AND ELDON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
806 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ073-075-220245-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
806 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN PITTSBURG AND LATIMER

AT 806 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF HARTSHORNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VETERANS COLONY...
WILBURTON...HIGGINS...DAMON...GOWEN...PANOLA...RED OAK AND
HARTSHORNE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ064-220300-
CREEK OK-
813 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 813 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTH OF MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...
DEPEW...MOUNDS...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
817 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ054-220315-
OSAGE OK-
817 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE

AT 817 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
WEST OF FAIRFAX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...
BURBANK...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.