Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tulsa, OK

000
WWUS54 KTSA 220102
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKC101-220145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-050322T0145Z/
MUSKOGEE OK-
702 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR 
EASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY...

AT 701 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PORUM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PORUM...WARNER 
AND WEBBERS FALLS.

LAT...LON 3564 9513 3552 9512 3547 9507 3540 9510
      3538 9515 3536 9514 3534 9518 3530 9520
      3528 9527 3530 9530 3530 9533 3553 9533

$$

000
WWUS54 KTSA 220133
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
733 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKC101-220143-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-050322T0145Z/
MUSKOGEE OK-
733 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MUSKOGEE COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3564 9513 3552 9512 3547 9507 3540 9510
      3538 9515 3536 9514 3534 9518 3530 9520
      3528 9527 3530 9530 3530 9533 3553 9533

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
THE SUPERCELL ON THE MCINTOSH...PITTSBURG AND HASKELL COUNTY LINES
IS MOVING INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  THE CELL CAN LAST FOR
THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR ON MESOCYCLONE INFLOW DYNAMICS...BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME.  ONE THING SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE CELL
IS ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY...SURFACE TO LCL...IN THE RIVER
VALLEY.

AT THE MOMENT TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
7PM NO WATCH IS PLANNED AT THE MOMENT FOR THE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND MERGING DRYLINE / COLD FRONT. WE WILL WAIT
FOR 00Z SOUNDING INFO TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1255 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

SEE /OKCSPSTSA/ FOR DETAILS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA....PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET....AFTERNOON.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
        ONSET...AFTERNOON.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST WHILE A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 60 NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.  MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THEREFORE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IF THIS OCCURS...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
OF BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION...INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ054-059-220045-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
540 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
    WESTERN OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE

AT 540 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 37 MILES WEST OF APPERSON TO 18 MILES WEST OF
PAWNEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...BURBANK...
APPERSON...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...FORAKER...GRAINOLA...PAWNEE AND
RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.52W
03/21/2005  0.88 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             10 N EUFAULA            35.43N 95.58W
03/21/2005  0.88 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED NEAR HIGHWAY 69 AND I40

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             2 N STIDHAM             35.40N 95.70W
03/21/2005  0.88 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ073-220045-
PITTSBURG OK-
614 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
    NORTHEAST PITTSBURG

AT 614 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM MAY
REQUIRE WARNINGS FOR FAR NORTHEAST PITTSBURG COUNTY. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ056-057-220100-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-
620 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA AND CRAIG

AT 620 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CENTRALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW AND
CENTRAILIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.