Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE EXTENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

PROFILER WINDS AND LATEST RUC WOULD HAVE UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN
RUSSELL AND SALINA AT 19Z.  SURFACE PATTERN HAS TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF CWA.
IN THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE SINCE THE NOON HOUR AND HAS SPREAD NORTH OF I70
JUST AFTER 3 PM.  MORE FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES GENERALLY OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE NORTH CENTRAL CWA MAINLY CLOUD.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH...WHILE
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HOLDING READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S PARTS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL.  DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AROUND 60.

MODELS SHOWING MAIN LIFT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL WORDING ON PRECIP IN THESE
AREAS.  STILL HANGING ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
WITH UPPER LOW IN VICINITY.  AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO BEGIN DROPPING OFF...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCE THROUGH THE MID MORNING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY.   WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES HOLDING
STEADY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SOME
CONCERN ON HOW LONG LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER.  SOME FOG POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS THAT GET THE RAIN AND WINDS STAY DOWN.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO EXIT MID TO LATE MORNING FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES.  FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON HOW WINDY AND WARM TO MAKE IT.  ALL
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
H850 MB IN SIMILAR RANGE.  GENERALLY WENT WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 80S WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST TO UPPER 80S WEST
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INTENSE 5H TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS CAUSING
THE LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH DEEPENS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE LLJ SHOULD
INCREASE OVER 40KTS MONDAY NIGHT...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE CWA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME I WILL ONLY KEEP POPS AT 14
PERCENT. THE 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL CAA ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER
WITH FROPA THAN THE GFS...AT THIS TIME IM LEANING MORE WITH NAM.
THEREFORE I INCREASED THE CHANCE POP COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND PLACED 20 POPS IN FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL CAUSE A
LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
500MB...AND BACKED SFC WINDS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...MAY BE LOWER 80S FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT IS A BIT FASTER. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE POST FRONTAL RAIN AND CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THE WAA ZONE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST BEFORE
NOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THOUGH READINGS MAY BE COOLER IF THE CLOUDS
LINGER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING NORTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS...TO MANHATTAN...TO SENECA LINE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A COOL EARLY MORNING
START...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE SFC RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY
NEXT SATURDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PF/WG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-022100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
142 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             3 NE BELVUE             39.25N 96.14W
10/01/2005  0.88 INCH        POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
201 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 AM     HAIL             DELIA                   39.24N 95.97W
10/02/2005  0.88 INCH        JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
252 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     HAIL             3 NE BELVUE             39.25N 96.14W
10/02/2005  0.88 INCH        POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
255 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     HAIL             DELIA                   39.24N 95.97W
10/02/2005  1.00 INCH        JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLOOD            W ST. MARYS             39.19N 96.07W
10/02/2005                   POTTAWATOMIE       KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 24 UNDER WATER.

&&

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