Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 020658
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
158 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005

KSC149-020708-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-051002T0700Z/
POTTAWATOMIE-
158 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTY EXPIRES AT 200 AM CDT...

AT 158 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE 
AREA...THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3922 9603 3919 9615 3928 9618 3931 9614
      3937 9603

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE EXTENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

PROFILER WINDS AND LATEST RUC WOULD HAVE UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN
RUSSELL AND SALINA AT 19Z.  SURFACE PATTERN HAS TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF CWA.
IN THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE SINCE THE NOON HOUR AND HAS SPREAD NORTH OF I70
JUST AFTER 3 PM.  MORE FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES GENERALLY OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE NORTH CENTRAL CWA MAINLY CLOUD.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH...WHILE
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HOLDING READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S PARTS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL.  DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AROUND 60.

MODELS SHOWING MAIN LIFT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL WORDING ON PRECIP IN THESE
AREAS.  STILL HANGING ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
WITH UPPER LOW IN VICINITY.  AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO BEGIN DROPPING OFF...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCE THROUGH THE MID MORNING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY.   WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES HOLDING
STEADY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SOME
CONCERN ON HOW LONG LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER.  SOME FOG POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS THAT GET THE RAIN AND WINDS STAY DOWN.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO EXIT MID TO LATE MORNING FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES.  FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON HOW WINDY AND WARM TO MAKE IT.  ALL
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
H850 MB IN SIMILAR RANGE.  GENERALLY WENT WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 80S WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST TO UPPER 80S WEST
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INTENSE 5H TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS CAUSING
THE LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH DEEPENS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE LLJ SHOULD
INCREASE OVER 40KTS MONDAY NIGHT...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE CWA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME I WILL ONLY KEEP POPS AT 14
PERCENT. THE 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL CAA ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER
WITH FROPA THAN THE GFS...AT THIS TIME IM LEANING MORE WITH NAM.
THEREFORE I INCREASED THE CHANCE POP COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND PLACED 20 POPS IN FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL CAUSE A
LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
500MB...AND BACKED SFC WINDS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...MAY BE LOWER 80S FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT IS A BIT FASTER. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE POST FRONTAL RAIN AND CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THE WAA ZONE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST BEFORE
NOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THOUGH READINGS MAY BE COOLER IF THE CLOUDS
LINGER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING NORTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS...TO MANHATTAN...TO SENECA LINE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A COOL EARLY MORNING
START...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE SFC RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY
NEXT SATURDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PF/WG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-022100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
358 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1122 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     AUBURN                  38.91N 95.82W
10/01/2005  60 MPH           SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MERIDEN                 39.19N 95.57W
10/01/2005                   JEFFERSON          KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            OFFICIALS CLOSING SEVERAL ROADS IN THE MERIDEN AREA DUE
            TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCE                38.97N 95.24W
10/01/2005  60 MPH           DOUGLAS            KS   ASOS

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     BLIZZARD         TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
10/01/2005                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE PERFORMED IN THE 1800 BLOCK OF EAST 37TH
            STREET

1209 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
10/02/2005                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER MAILBOXES IN 3800 BLOCK OF TECUMSEH

1209 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
10/02/2005                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 FEET OF WATER AT FIRST AND GOLDEN

1209 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
10/02/2005                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER UP TO HEADLIGHTS AT 3100 CROCO

1220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
10/02/2005                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER REPORTED AT 34TH TERRACE AND SKYLARK

1220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
10/02/2005                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OF UNKNOWN DEPTH AT 40 HIGHWAY AND SHAWNEE
            HEIGHTS ROAD

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
10/01/2005                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE PERFORMED IN THE 1800 BLOCK OF EAST 37TH
            STREET

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
121 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OSKALOOSA               39.22N 95.31W
10/02/2005                   JEFFERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAY IN SOME AREAS ALONG KANSAS HIGHWAY 16
            AS WELL AS AT THE HIGHWAY 24 HIGHWAY 59 JUNCTION.
            SHERRIFF REPORTED NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY DUE TO WATER OVER ROADWAYS.

0105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N HOYT                39.31N 95.71W
10/02/2005                   JACKSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARS STUCK IN WATER AT 75 HIGHWAY AND 134TH STREET.

&&

KC