Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...

INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST LEAD THE
LIST OF CHALLENGES THIS MORNING.

00Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED ENE JET FROM FOUR CORNERS NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SEASONABLY STRONG STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE
DAKOTAS. TEMPS AROUND 13C AT 700MB OVER MUCH OF KANSAS WITH 0-8C
DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB
MOISTURE LEVELS AROUND 14C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY KLWD TO
KEHA.

UPPER SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WORK OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH SECONDARY
TROF PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA. 850MB PROFILER DATA INDICATING
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO VEER WHICH SHOULD BRING A DECREASING
TREND TO THE CONVECTION...THOUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES
TO CREATE SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. MODELS INDICATE
THIS LIFT TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH THIS MAY BE AN
ARTIFACT OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES. NEVERTHELESS...
SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE MID DAY HOURS...THEN BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH BEHIND SECONDARY WAVE. SYNOPTIC FEATURES RATHER
RESPECTABLE WITH JET CORE TO THE NORTHEAST...500MB HEIGHTS
FALLING...AND 700-850MB MOISTURE POOLING MAINLY THIS EVENING...WITH
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE...SO SOME CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITION A LARGE UNCERTAINTY
HOWEVER WITH SECONDARY WAVE KEEPING PRESSURES FROM RISING TOO FAST
BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES. MAIN SHOVE
MAY BE FROM COOL OUTFLOW WHICH MODELS WILL NOT HANDLE WELL. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART.

NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH PACIFIC HIGH TO
KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMALS FOR FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTING SOME MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
COMES IN SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH MODELS VARY WIDELY ON QUALITY OF
MOISTURE.

NEXT NORTHERN STATES SYSTEM TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND MAY NOT STRAY FAR ON INTO NEXT WEEK.
GOING PRECIPITATION MENTION SEEMS FINE FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
456 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
456 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...AND TONIGHT MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     HAIL             7 ESE GLASCO            39.32N 97.72W
06/30/2005  0.88 INCH        CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED 2 TO 3 MINUTES.

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HAIL             4 ENE DELPHOS           39.30N 97.70W
06/30/2005  1.00 INCH        OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HAIL             MILTONVALE              39.35N 97.45W
06/30/2005  0.75 INCH        CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EVENT LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     HAIL             MILTONVALE              39.35N 97.45W
06/30/2005  0.75 INCH        CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PREVIOUS EVENT ENDED FOR A TIME BEFORE HAIL BEGAN AGAIN.

&&

STRASSBERG