Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Great Falls, MT

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 092027
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
227 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005

MTC001-092045-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-050709T2045Z/
BEAVERHEAD MT-
227 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 245 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL BEAVERHEAD COUNTY...

AT 222 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DILLON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4542 11263 4542 11256 4543 11255 4543 11249
      4539 11246 4525 11246 4507 11280 4518 11293
      4521 11295

$$

MPJ

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 092041
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
241 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005

MTC001-092051-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-050709T2045Z/
BEAVERHEAD MT-
241 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BEAVERHEAD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA...THUS THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4542 11263 4542 11256 4543 11255 4543 11249
      4539 11246 4525 11246 4507 11280 4518 11293
      4521 11295

$$

MPJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
918 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL NEED TO RAISE WINDS FOR TODAY WITH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT BLOWING 15 TO 30 MPH ALREADY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BUT WITH THE WARM START WILL LET THEM
RIDE. MEIER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 522 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005)

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER TFX CWA
THIS MORNING. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF A HELENA-GREAT FALLS-HAVRE LINE...DUE TO LESSER
INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALSO COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND LESS UNSETTLED...FOR A DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST WILL ALSO DECREASE THE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO. COULSTON

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
HINTING AT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH MORE
OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY SPREADING OVER
THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
CAMP

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS DURING
THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM CONFIDENCE.  HOWEVER TREND IS OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH UPPER AIR RIDGE APPROACHING
THE DAKOTA BORDER.  WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.   EK

AVIATION...
UPDATED 1122Z
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GET
INTO HELENA THIS MORNING...INTO GREAT FALLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN INTO HAVRE AND LEWISTOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  52  73  52 /  50  50  30  20
CTB  78  46  71  51 /  30  30  30  20
HLN  84  54  74  54 /  60  60  30  20
BZN  89  54  75  48 /  50  50  30  20
WEY  82  46  75  39 /  30  40  30  20
DLN  85  51  73  49 /  50  40  30  10
HVR  90  54  78  53 /  30  40  30  20
LWT  90  54  71  51 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005

MTZ008>015-044>055-101105-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN
GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND
CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH
BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
530 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT...WITH LESS UNSTABLE AIR IN THAT AREA.

NO WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

COULSTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
823 AM MDT SAT JUL 09 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW GRANT              44.93N 113.18W
07/08/2005  70 MPH           BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            DRY THUNDERSTORM...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRANT                   45.01N 113.07W
07/08/2005  55 MPH           BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORM...WITH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 55
            MPH.

0438 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE DILLON             45.27N 112.56W
07/08/2005  58 MPH           BEAVERHEAD         MT   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            DRY THUNDERSTORM...DILLON ASOS...58 MPH PEAK GUST.

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST HELENA             46.59N 111.92W
07/08/2005                   LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STABLE DESTROYED...DEBRIS CAUSES DAMAGE TO ADJACENT HOUSE
            AND TOPPLES APPROXIMATELY 6 POWER POLES. EAST HELENA
            WITHOUT POWER. NO INJURIES.

&&

MPJ