Tornado Warning 15, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 091050
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
650 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

FLC103-091100-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-050709T1100Z/
PINELLAS-
650 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR PINELLAS COUNTY UNTIL 700 AM 
EDT...

AT 650 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
TORNADO NEAR SAINT PETE BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
  SAINT PETE BEACH.
  CLEARWATER BEACH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

&&

LAT...LON 2755 8266 2772 8258 2781 8282 2760 8283

$$

17

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE ZONES AND COASTALS TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM ANCLOTE KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AS PER LATEST TPC ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS WITH UPDATED W/W/A SECTION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...OUTER FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE DENNIS WHICH HAS NOW JUST
EMERGED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. AS DENNIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWEST OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS INCREASING SHEAR WITHIN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SMALL SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN THESE
BANDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF DENNIS MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL TPC TRACK KEEPS DENNIS ROUGHLY 200 MILES
TO THE WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WORSE
CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER WITH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF DENNIS (STRONGEST SIDE) STRONG SQUALLS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LEE COUNTY NORTH TO PASCO
COUNTY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH
TO MY NORTHERN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FURTHER INLAND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK OF DENNIS BY TPC...NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS STATUS LISTED BELOW...BUT IF NEEDED WILL
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN A QUICK UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING AFTER THE
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUANCE AROUND 5 AM EDT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON DENNIS...SEE OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (HLSTBW).

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL FILL IN
BEHIND WHATS LEFT OF DENNIS. BY LATE TUE A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
BREAK OFF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. FL WILL BE IN THE WEAKNESS IN
BETWEEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMAINS OF DENNIS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS FILLING IN THE
WEAKNESS. YESTERDAY ATTM GUIDANCE HAD A RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO THIS IS QUITE THE FLIP FLOP. FOR NOW THE
NEWER SOLN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST TPC FORECAST.

EITHER WAY...WELL HAVE SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY...WITH
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AS HURRICANE DENNIS
MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. BASED ON THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
TRACK OF DENNIS VIA TPC...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE WILL IMPACT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER NORTH DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS WILL BE INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS...WITH TIDES EXPECTED TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER STRONG 20 FOOT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 77 86 79/ 100 70 50 40
FMY 86 77 87 76/ 100 70 50 40
GIF 86 76 86 76/ 100 70 50 40
SRQ 86 78 86 78/ 100 70 50 40
BKV 87 77 86 78/ 100 80 60 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 TORNADO WATCH 626 UNTIL 9 AM EDT FOR MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...
  DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
 WIND ADVISORY 8 AM TODAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR SUMTER...POLK...
  HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
 FLOOD WATCH 8 AM TODAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY ALL ZONES.

SHORT TERM...JCM
LONG TERM/UPDATE....RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
601 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091200-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
601 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA/

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...TORNADO WATCH 626 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT FOR MANATEE...
   SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE
  COUNTIES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TODAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR SUMTER
   POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
...FLOOD WATCH 8 AM TODAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY ALL ZONES.

OUTER RAINBANDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING NORTHWEST
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM SARASOTA SOUTH TO THE
FORT MYERS AREA. THESE RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...
OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
DAY.

SQUALLY WINDS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE BANDS AS MOVE INTO THE REGION. THESE RAINS WILL
PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND WILL
CAUSE AREA RIVERS TO BE ON THE RISE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WITH GUSTS UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FURTHER INLAND WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUST UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS
TO BE BLOWN AROUND...SO RESIDENTS SHOULD BRING IN ANY
OUTDOOR OBJECTS...SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS...AS THESE
OBJECTS CAN BE PROJECTILES IN THE STRONG WIND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE DENNIS...PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE HERE IN RUSKIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS DENNIS MOVES FURTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS...WITH THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES. DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM