Tornado Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 090916
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

FLC055-090925-
/O.EXP.KTBW.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-050709T0915Z/
HIGHLANDS-
515 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY EXPIRED AT
515 AM EDT...

AT 515 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE TORNADO
HAD DISSIPATED...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. STAY 
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE 
WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 2687 8135 2702 8123 2724 8154 2705 8156

$$

57

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE ZONES AND COASTALS TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM ANCLOTE KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AS PER LATEST TPC ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS WITH UPDATED W/W/A SECTION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...OUTER FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE DENNIS WHICH HAS NOW JUST
EMERGED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. AS DENNIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWEST OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS INCREASING SHEAR WITHIN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SMALL SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN THESE
BANDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF DENNIS MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL TPC TRACK KEEPS DENNIS ROUGHLY 200 MILES
TO THE WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WORSE
CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER WITH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF DENNIS (STRONGEST SIDE) STRONG SQUALLS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LEE COUNTY NORTH TO PASCO
COUNTY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH
TO MY NORTHERN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FURTHER INLAND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK OF DENNIS BY TPC...NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS STATUS LISTED BELOW...BUT IF NEEDED WILL
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN A QUICK UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING AFTER THE
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUANCE AROUND 5 AM EDT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON DENNIS...SEE OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (HLSTBW).

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL FILL IN
BEHIND WHATS LEFT OF DENNIS. BY LATE TUE A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
BREAK OFF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. FL WILL BE IN THE WEAKNESS IN
BETWEEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMAINS OF DENNIS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS FILLING IN THE
WEAKNESS. YESTERDAY ATTM GUIDANCE HAD A RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO THIS IS QUITE THE FLIP FLOP. FOR NOW THE
NEWER SOLN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST TPC FORECAST.

EITHER WAY...WELL HAVE SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY...WITH
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AS HURRICANE DENNIS
MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. BASED ON THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
TRACK OF DENNIS VIA TPC...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE WILL IMPACT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER NORTH DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS WILL BE INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS...WITH TIDES EXPECTED TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER STRONG 20 FOOT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 77 86 79/ 100 70 50 40
FMY 86 77 87 76/ 100 70 50 40
GIF 86 76 86 76/ 100 70 50 40
SRQ 86 78 86 78/ 100 70 50 40
BKV 87 77 86 78/ 100 80 60 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 TORNADO WATCH 626 UNTIL 9 AM EDT FOR MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...
  DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
 WIND ADVISORY 8 AM TODAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR SUMTER...POLK...
  HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
 FLOOD WATCH 8 AM TODAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY ALL ZONES.

SHORT TERM...JCM
LONG TERM/UPDATE....RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
549 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
549 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE FIRST FRINGE EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE
DENNIS...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SMALL
TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HURRICANE DENNIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SATURDAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN
LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST
TRACK...AS WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS...SUGGEST THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE MARINE WINDS AND WAVES...LOCALIZED INLAND FLOODING...AND
SMALL BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.

MARINE HAZARDS: THE THREAT FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS DECREASING
THIS MORNING AS DENNIS TRACKS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM OUT. IN ADDITION...THE FARTHER WEST TRACK MAY
GENERATE HIGHER SEAS AND SWELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS NORTH
OF ENGLEWOOD LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING...BUT OVERWASH...RUN-UP...AND
BEACH EROSION REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

LAND HAZARDS: THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFAC
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ROTATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO PROMOTE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS...WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ALREADY HIGH
RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD TORNADO
WATCHES BE ISSUED.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1202 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

FLZ061-062-090445-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-
1202 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE AND SOUTHERN
DESOTO...

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...AN OUTER RAIN BAND
FROM HURRICANE DENNIS...IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH...AND WILL
AFFECT BABCOCK RANCH AND FORT OGDEN...UNTIL 1245 AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS