Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 9

January 2, 200510 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2005, 7:14 AM EST for 10 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2005, 7:14 AM EST (12:14 UTC)
Expired
Jan 2, 2005, 9:15 AM EST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Roscommon County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2005-01-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2005-01-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 412 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
379 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
412 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
417 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

368 
ACUS11 KWNS 021214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021214 
MIZ000-021415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 021214Z - 021415Z

FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW...WILL END BY
1400/1430Z ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING.

AT 12Z...A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION STRETCHED FROM NEAR HTL
SWWD TO NEAR MKG AND WAS MOVING ENEWD AT 45 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION
WOULD PUSH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF MI BY 14Z. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF
LOWER MI...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S LOCATED ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE AND WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS AIDED
IN SHIFTING THE FREEZING LINE NEWD.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING AS THE HEAVIER WINTER PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR MBS TO HTL TO OSC.

THE STRONG WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RAISE READINGS
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN LOWER MI WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT COMING TO AN END BY 1430Z.

..IMY.. 01/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

44428539 45158334 44678327 43728386 43788526

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 7:21 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Antrim, Barry, Bay, Benzie, Clare and 35 more6 hr
Jan 1, 7:53 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGogebic, Houghton, Keweenaw, Ontonagon5 hr
Jan 2, 1:08 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Baraga and 53 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.