Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005
Mesoscale Discussion 9
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2005, 7:14 AM EST for 10 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 2, 2005, 7:14 AM EST (12:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 2, 2005, 9:15 AM EST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Roscommon County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 379 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 412 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 417 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
368 ACUS11 KWNS 021214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021214 MIZ000-021415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 021214Z - 021415Z FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW...WILL END BY 1400/1430Z ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AT 12Z...A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION STRETCHED FROM NEAR HTL SWWD TO NEAR MKG AND WAS MOVING ENEWD AT 45 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION WOULD PUSH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF MI BY 14Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF LOWER MI...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S LOCATED ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE AND WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS AIDED IN SHIFTING THE FREEZING LINE NEWD. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING AS THE HEAVIER WINTER PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR MBS TO HTL TO OSC. THE STRONG WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RAISE READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF NERN LOWER MI WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT COMING TO AN END BY 1430Z. ..IMY.. 01/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44428539 45158334 44678327 43728386 43788526
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 7:21 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Antrim, Barry, Bay, Benzie, Clare and 35 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 1, 7:53 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gogebic, Houghton, Keweenaw, Ontonagon | 5 hr |
| Jan 2, 1:08 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Baraga and 53 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.