Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 7

January 1, 20054 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2005, 6:53 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 1, 2005, 6:53 PM CST (00:53 UTC)
Expired: Jan 2, 2005, 12:00 AM CST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 26 counties

Gogebic County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Keweenaw County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Beltrami County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cook County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Cavalier County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Ashland County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Iron County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 514 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 258 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

143 
ACUS11 KWNS 020053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020053 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-020600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NRN MN...FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P OF MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 020053Z - 020600Z

HVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER FAR NERN ND...NWRN MN THROUGH
03Z...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS FAR NWRN WI AND THE WRN U.P OF MI
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. HRLY ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI/WRN
U.P OF MI REGION WHERE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NNEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SERN ND. AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT W-E ORIENTED HVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS NRN MN AND FAR NERN ND
FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH
NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NERN MN/FAR
NWRN WI...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HVY
SNOWFALL EWD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL SUPPORT 20:1 SNOW/WATER RATIOS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 LAYER SUPPORTING
A DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT
IN HRLY SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH EWD INTO THE FAR WRN U.P.
OF MI. AS THE UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...HVY SNOW SHOULD
END OVER NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI BETWEEN 03-06Z AND OVER THE WRN U.P. OF
MI SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...FGF...

48489304 48979540 49079899 48049916 47889719 47809540
46579297 46369199 46109029 46388914 47038828 47438778
47958946

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 1, 6:21 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegan, Antrim, Barry, Bay, Benzie, Clare and 35 more	6 hr
Jan 2, 12:08 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alcona, Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Baraga and 53 more	4 hr
Jan 2, 6:14 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alcona, Alpena, Arenac, Clare, Crawford, Gladwin and 4 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.