Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 052310
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
510 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

MOC085-167-060015-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-051106T0015Z/
HICKORY MO-POLK MO-
510 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POLK AND
HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 508 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WHEATLAND TO FAIR PLAY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR HERMITAGE BY 520 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF DUNNEGAN...QUINCY...FLEMINGTON...ELKTON...CROSS
TIMBERS...POLK...PITTSBURG...NEMO AND PRESTON ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF
THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3781 9363 3782 9359 3785 9359 3791 9351
      3807 9348 3805 9308 3805 9308 3792 9308
      3791 9320 3772 9321 3762 9362

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 052331
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

MOC085-167-060015-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-051106T0015Z/
HICKORY MO-POLK MO-
530 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POLK AND
HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 527 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
HERMITAGE TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUMANSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN HICKORY AND NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS
OF HERMITAGE...ELKTON...CROSS TIMBERS...PITTSBURG...PRESTON AND NEMO.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3774 9349 3807 9336 3805 9308 3806 9308
      3792 9308 3791 9320 3773 9321

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 052348
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

MOC085-167-060015-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-051106T0015Z/
HICKORY MO-POLK MO-
546 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POLK AND
HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 542 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED TWO MILES NORTH OF WALNUT GROVE...OR 12 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

ANOTHER STORM EXTENDED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN HICKORY COUNTY.  THIS 
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN 
AND CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF 
EUDORA...MORRISVILLE AND HALF WAY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3743 9362 3797 9326 3795 9321 3755 9319
      3743 9340

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 052356
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

MOC085-060006-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-051106T0015Z/
HICKORY MO-
556 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HICKORY COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 552 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3750 9356 3779 9326 3779 9321 3773 9321
      3772 9318 3755 9319 3745 9347

$$

MOC167-060015-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-051106T0015Z/
POLK MO-
556 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POLK COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 552 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MORRISVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF 
BOLIVAR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF POLK
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF BOLIVAR...HALF WAY AND GOODSON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3750 9356 3779 9326 3779 9321 3773 9321
      3772 9318 3755 9319 3745 9347

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 060016
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

MOC167-060026-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-051106T0015Z/
POLK MO-
616 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

AT 613 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WERE MOVING OUT OF THE 
AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3750 9356 3779 9326 3779 9321 3773 9321
      3772 9318 3755 9319 3745 9347

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES IN LATER PERIODS.

COLD FRONT HAS ONLY INCHED SOUTHWARD SINCE YESTERDAY..EXTENDING FROM
WEST CENTRAL IL...TO JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MODIFIED GULF AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG F. 18Z RAWINSONDE FROM
KSGF INDICATES A STRONGER THAN EXPECTED CAP...ABOUT 5 DEG C FROM
850MB TO 800 MB. THIS IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE NAM...AND EVEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN WHAT THE GFS INDICATED FROM THE 12Z RUN.
MECHANISMS THAT MAY POSSIBLY BREAK THE CAP WILL BE INCREASINGLY
STRONG FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND LIFT/COOLING/FORCING
WITH A QUICKLY APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...NOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN KS. HONESTLY...HAVING A TOUGH TIME SIZING UP WHETHER THE CAP
WILL BE OVERCOME...BUT COOLING ABOVE THE CAP SHOULD COMMENCE BEFORE
00Z AND BECOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AFTER 00Z AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN MO OZARKS. CAP ALSO MAY BE ABOUT 2 DEG C WEAKER
OVER THE EASTERN CWA (USING THE GFS AS A GUIDE). ML CAPES ABOUT
1000-1200 J/KG OFF THE GFS ALONG WITH 500 MB WINDS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 60-65 KTS BY 03Z. IF THE CAP BREAKS...SUPERCELLS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA POSSIBLE AS SURFACE WINDS BACK SOMEWHAT
IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL MO. O-3KM HELICITY INCREASES TO 300 M2/S2
ROLLA/SALEM POINT SOUNDING 00-03Z. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...SURFACE
COOLING MAY ALSO LIMIT SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY BY THAT TIME.
ALL-IN-ALL..HAVE MY HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING AND
MENTION SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO IN THAT SAME AREA. 00Z SOUNDING
WILL HELP INDICATE THE DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL COOLING WHICH SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY BY THEN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN RETURN FLOW
WILL RAPIDLY COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY...AND
THERE MAY BE A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY. BELIEVE MODELS
ARE A LITTLE FAST IN RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL EVENTUALLY BRING RH LEVELS UP LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN MO STATE LINE. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME RECORD
WARMTH A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVING SHOWING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER
WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
THIS WAY...FROPA MAY BE DELAYED... OR PROGRESS SLOWED...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. FOR NOW STICKING PRETTY
CLOSE TO NCEP SOLUTIONS...BUT HAVE EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES INTO ALL OF
WEDNESDAY. PRETTY POTENT SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF...SO SEVERE WEATHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...BUT A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO PUSH INTO JLN AT 23Z.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THE JLN/SGF
FORECAST POINTS BY 00Z AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FORECAST.  MAY SEE SOME BROKEN CEILINGS FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS IN SGF AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET HOWEVER AM EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

LINDENBERG
&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
457 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
457 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
PRODUCE UP TWO INCH IN DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI
OZARKS...GENERALLY IN COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A WARSAW TO
CASSVILLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

 DISCUSSION:

A COLD FRONT TWILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
EVENING. A MIDDAY UPPER AIR OBSERVATION INDICATED A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BREAK
THE CAP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE SUPERCELL STORMS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE BEFORE EXITING THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

MOZ055>058-068>071-060400-
BENTON-CAMDEN-HICKORY-MARIES-MILLER-MORGAN-PHELPS-PULASKI-
353 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 841 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON... CAMDEN... HICKORY...
MARIES... MILLER... MORGAN...
PHELPS... PULASKI...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CAMDENTON...COLE CAMP...ELDON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...HERMITAGE...LAKE OZARK...OSAGE BEACH...
ROLLA...VERSAILLES...VIENNA...WARSAW AND WAYNESVILLE.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MISSOURI
OZARKS LATE THIS EVENING.  AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.  THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION.  IN ADDITION TO
TORNADOES...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY
THE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CRAMER