Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE
MOST CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS ARE COMPLEX THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUTFLOW
FROM ELEVATED MCS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI SURGED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. VERY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES HAVE KEPT STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON VERY PULSY AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG/NEAR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS
PROPAGATES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR CWA PROBABLY RIDING THE EDGE
OF THE COLD POOL. NAM/GFS/WRF ALL HAVE STRONG QPF SIGNALS OVER THE
OZARKS TONIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80KT
200MB JET. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMA DEVELOPS AFTER
SUNSET. COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND RELATIVE WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY SEVERE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE MORE OF A POSSIBLY
TONIGHT IF A STRONG COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. 45-55KT
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS TONIGHT WOULD SUGGEST THAT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF EMPORIA CAN DEVELOP A STRONG COLD POOL.

TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. COOLER WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED (AS IT TYPICALLY IS THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SGF CWA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES NEXT WEEK. LOOKS AS THOUGH A RELATIVELY
LOW AMPLITUDE RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SET UP EITHER HERE OR
NEARBY WITH OCCASIONAL MCS CHANCES. PREDICTING TIMING/LOCATION OF
AN MCS IS HARD ENOUGH 6-12 HOURS OUT (ALA TONIGHT)...AND IMPOSSIBLE
4-7 DAYS OUT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES DECIDED TO BROADBRUSH SILENT
20 POPS IN THE GRIDS MON-WED AND ADD MENTION OF THUNDER NEXT WEEK
INTO THE HWO.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SCT TS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
JUST BARELY MISS SGF TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DID INCLUDE
SOME TS IN VC. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONLY INCLUDED
PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER UNTIL TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE BETTER PINPOINTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT STORMS.

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
524 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

  A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS BEEN IN PLACE
  ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS
  INCREASING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM.
  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
  SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY WEST OF A HERMITAGE
  TO LEBANON TO GAINESVILLE LINE.

  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
  ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. TORRENTIAL
  RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER RECENT DRY
  CONDITIONS AND FORWARD STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
  WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION FOR INTO THE
  EVENING HOURS..

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HAIL             5 W JOPLIN              37.08N 94.61W
06/30/2005  2.75 INCH        JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

MT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1022 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     HAIL             GALENA                  37.07N 94.63W
06/30/2005  1.75 INCH        CHEROKEE           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W JOPLIN              37.08N 94.54W
06/30/2005                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DAMAGE LOCATIONS WEST OF TOWN.

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1034 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     HAIL             3 N REDINGS MILL        37.06N 94.52W
06/30/2005  1.00 INCH        NEWTON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

FEH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1039 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     TORNADO          1 E SAGINAW             37.02N 94.46W
06/30/2005                   NEWTON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND.

FEH