Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE
MOST CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS ARE COMPLEX THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUTFLOW
FROM ELEVATED MCS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI SURGED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. VERY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES HAVE KEPT STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON VERY PULSY AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG/NEAR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS
PROPAGATES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR CWA PROBABLY RIDING THE EDGE
OF THE COLD POOL. NAM/GFS/WRF ALL HAVE STRONG QPF SIGNALS OVER THE
OZARKS TONIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80KT
200MB JET. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMA DEVELOPS AFTER
SUNSET. COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND RELATIVE WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY SEVERE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE MORE OF A POSSIBLY
TONIGHT IF A STRONG COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. 45-55KT
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS TONIGHT WOULD SUGGEST THAT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF EMPORIA CAN DEVELOP A STRONG COLD POOL.

TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. COOLER WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED (AS IT TYPICALLY IS THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SGF CWA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES NEXT WEEK. LOOKS AS THOUGH A RELATIVELY
LOW AMPLITUDE RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SET UP EITHER HERE OR
NEARBY WITH OCCASIONAL MCS CHANCES. PREDICTING TIMING/LOCATION OF
AN MCS IS HARD ENOUGH 6-12 HOURS OUT (ALA TONIGHT)...AND IMPOSSIBLE
4-7 DAYS OUT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES DECIDED TO BROADBRUSH SILENT
20 POPS IN THE GRIDS MON-WED AND ADD MENTION OF THUNDER NEXT WEEK
INTO THE HWO.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SCT TS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
JUST BARELY MISS SGF TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DID INCLUDE
SOME TS IN VC. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONLY INCLUDED
PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER UNTIL TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE BETTER PINPOINTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT STORMS.

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
524 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

  A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS BEEN IN PLACE
  ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS
  INCREASING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM.
  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
  SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY WEST OF A HERMITAGE
  TO LEBANON TO GAINESVILLE LINE.

  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
  ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. TORRENTIAL
  RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER RECENT DRY
  CONDITIONS AND FORWARD STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
  WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION FOR INTO THE
  EVENING HOURS..

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
908 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTON                   36.70N 91.40W
06/30/2005                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN FROM EAST OF ALTON NORTHWARD TO
            ALONG THE SHANNON OREGON COUNTY LINE

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     (UNO)WEST PLAINS        36.73N 91.83W
06/30/2005                   HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN AND EAST OF WEST PLAINS.

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
917 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             WEST MINERAL            37.28N 94.92W
06/30/2005  1.75 INCH        CHEROKEE           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TORNADO          2 W WEST MINERAL        37.28N 94.96W
06/30/2005                   CHEROKEE           KS   STORM CHASER

            500 YARD WIDE TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTH
            OF 160.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
924 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

MOZ088-093-010330-
JASPER-NEWTON-
924 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES...

AT 919 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERES WERE TRACKING A TORNADO NEAR WEST MINERAL...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OSWEGO...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NEWTON AND SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. THE TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS
GREATEST FROM CARL JUNCTION...SOUTH TOWARD JOPLIN INTO LEAWOOD AND
RACINE. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
939 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TORNADO          SCAMMON                 37.28N 94.82W
06/30/2005                   CHEROKEE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KS HWY PATROL HAS REPORTED THE TOWN OF SCAMMON HAS BEEN
            STRUCK BY A TORNADO

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...EVENT SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     COLUMBUS                37.17N 94.83W
06/30/2005                   CHEROKEE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OVERHEAD AT SCAMMON - HIGH WINDS MOVED
            PARKED CAR

MT