Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WGUS71 KRLX 291855
FFSRLX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
247 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

WVC013-021-292100-
CALHOUN WV-GILMER WV-
247 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR
GILMER AND CALHOUN COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 
THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA 
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM.  THIS WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS 
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GILMER 
AND EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES.  

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE LOCATIONS ALONG THE STEER CREEK AND 
CEDAR CREEK BASINS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3866 8111 3885 8075 3907 8078 3892 8125

$$

AAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF KATRINA IS BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND 850
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS ACTING AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME BREAK IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS COMES
NORTHWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY AS THE CEILING IS ABOVE 12000 FT
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IMPROVING AT BKW. IN THE WEST...HTS/PKB
WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1122 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...

INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND 850 MB CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ARE NOW
SITTING OVER THE OHIO RIVER AND EASTERN OHIO. AS KATRINA BEGINS TO
APPROACH...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH. AS THIS FLOW CONVERGES WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THUS HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND ALSO
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT WILL BE LOOKING AT NEW MODELS TO DEAL WITH TRACK OF
KATRINA AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 640 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005)

AVIATION...

MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME BRINGING
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.  SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA BUT CONDITIONS WITHIN THE RAIN IS NOT RESTRICTING
VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR.  EXPECT MID DECK AND HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE EFFECTS FROM KATRINA BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF OHIO RIVER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN SITES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 315 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005)

LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

KATRINA REMAINS THE TOTAL FOCUS ON OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS KATRINA NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE TONIGHT...AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
OHIO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FASTER
GFS MODEL RATHER THAN THE SLOWER MET MODEL...AND IS REASONABLE SINCE
TROPICAL SYSTEMS USUALLY DO NOT SLOW DOWN WHEN THEY BECOME EMBEDDED
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE FASTER SOLUTION... TREMENDOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS ALONG ITS
TRACK. MOST OF THE RAIN FOR OUR REGION WILL FALL TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION...SINCE WE WILL BE ON
EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK...THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE...AS
KATRINA MOVES INLAND THE WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN...BUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE STILL BE FELT TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE TROPICAL AIR...MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL LIFT OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...ESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
442 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-300845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
442 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL
ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY LEADING TO WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND ANY CHANGE
IN THE TRACK COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE TIMING...CHANCE...AND AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005-006-291945-
BOYD-CABELL-CARTER-GALLIA-GREENUP-LAWRENCE-WAYNE-
140 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2
TO ONE INCH IN THE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THEY PASS.  THIS WILL
CAUSE DRAINAGE PROBLEMS IN URBAN AREAS AND SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IN LOW SPOTS.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE THREAT OF
FLOODING ON STREAMS AND CREEKS IF THE REPEATED PASSAGE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY STORMS IN SOME AREAS DEVELOPS.

01