Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KPSR 050020
SVSPSR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
519 PM MST THU AUG 4 2005

AZC027-050045-
/O.CON.KPSR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-050805T0045Z/
YUMA AZ-
519 PM MST THU AUG 4 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 545 PM MST FOR WEST
CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY...

AT 510 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR YUMA AND WAS 
NEARLY STATIONARY.

TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THE YUMA AREA HAVE REPORTED DOWNED POWER POLES 
AND WIND DAMAGE. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BLAISDELL...KINTER AND MARTINEZ LAKE.

LAT...LON 3248 11483 3254 11481 3261 11482 3273 11471
      3272 11462 3276 11454 3281 11453 3285 11447
      3298 11447 3301 11443 3272 11408 3233 11432

$$

LW

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-050600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
322 PM MST THU AUG 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES EACH DAY WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SOME WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO NEAR EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS...THEN WILL LOWER A
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER HIGH WITH CENTER TO REMAIN OVER NV THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN INTO NE AZ BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY
FLOW OF MOIST AIR OVER OUR REGION WHICH ALREADY HAS AN ABUNDANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. ONLY DYNAMIC MECHANISM TO HELP THUNDERSTORMS IS
VORTMAX / INVERTED TROF MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY THROUGH SW AZ SE CA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THUS WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES A BIT HIGHER
OVER THAT REGION. ALSO A DRY LINE IN W NM MOVING W IS GENERATING
STORMS NEAR AZ EASTERN BORDER. THESE MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ LATER THIS EVENING.  BY FRI AND OVER THE WEEKEND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY RELY ON THE CURRENT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING...AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMOS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ENTIRE REGION BUT WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE
TO NEAR 4 CORNERS AND EASTWARD THRU MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR REGION PICKING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DISTURBANCES AT TIMES
ROTATING UP FROM MEXICO...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EASTERLY WAVE WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH MEXICO ABOUT LATE MON/TUES.  THIS WILL BRING MORE DYNAMICS
FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDED
MOISTURE INFUX AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS A BIT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. TAFS FOR KPHX...KIWA...KYUM...KIPL...AND
KBLH ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

DKS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST THU AUG 4 2005

AZZ020>023-025>028-CAZ031>033-050700-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
1020 AM PDT THU AUG 4 2005 /1020 AM MST THU AUG 4 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NOT TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY
DAY...WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AZZ024-050700-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS-
1020 AM MST THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY DAY...WITH FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CAZ030-050700-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
1020 AM PDT THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY DAY...WITH FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DKS