Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 040126 CCA
SVRPSR
CAC025-040215-
/O.COR.KPSR.SV.W.0083.050804T0116Z-050804T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
616 PM MST WED AUG 3 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GLAMIS...BRAWLEY
  
* UNTIL 715 PM PDT

* AT 610 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15
  MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLTVILLE...OR ABOUT 21 MILES EAST OF BRAWLEY...
  AND WILL MOVE ACROSS STATE ROUTE 78 AROUND 625 PM. THIS STORM IS
  MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THERE IS A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPING OVER IMPERIAL COUNTY...ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER 
  VALLEY THAT IS CAPABLE OF TURNING SEVERE. THIS STORM IS 11 MILES
  WEST OF MARTINEZ LAKE AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. 

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
  WIEST...IMPERIAL AND ALAMORIO.

LAT...LON 3281 11560 3275 11460 3332 11444 3340 11545

$$

LW

000 
WWUS55 KPSR 040147
SVSPSR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
644 PM MST WED AUG 3 2005

CAC025-040154-
/O.CAN.KPSR.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-050804T0215Z/
IMPERIAL CA-
644 PM MST WED AUG 3 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AS OF 648 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR NO LONGER INDICATES THE TWO STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER IMPERIAL COUNTY ARE SEVERE. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS 
TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH 
SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. 

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. 
PERSONS TRAVELING IN THE AREA...AND ALONG STATE ROUTE 78 AND 
INTERSTATE 8 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER 
CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3340 11544 3333 11473 3330 11474 3327 11469
      3315 11469 3309 11473 3302 11466 3302 11453
      3276 11460 3282 11559

$$

LW

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-040600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
410 PM MST WED AUG 3 2005

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS POSITIONED TO
OUR NORTH. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME...HELPING TO TRIGGER NEARLY DAILY OCCURRANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICPATED ON THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT
LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DUE TO COOLING FROM LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS...MERCURIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY TO NEAR
EARLY-AUGUST LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING WELL BEHIND YESTERDAYS READINGS AT MOST
PLACES...DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO LAST NIGHTS STORM ACTIVITY.
FORECAST THINKING STILL UNCHANGED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
TONIGHT OVER ZONE 24 AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
DESERTS...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA...ARE OUT OF IT. GIVEN LIMITED
CAPE THOUGH...STORMS THAT FORM THERE ARE APT TO BE ISOLATED. IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE SOME HEALTHY OUTFLOW WINDS TO INITIATE STORMS OVER THE
PHOENIX AREA. AN X-FACTOR IS THE MCV CENTERED OVER WESTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY. JUST HOW MUCH FORCING IT WILL PRODUCE...IF ANY...IS
UNCERTAIN. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH GFS AND ETA-NAM ADVANCE
THE BIG INVERTED TROUGH WESTWARD. THEY DEPICT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AT 300 AND 250 MB WITH
DIFFLUENCE...MAINLY AT 300 MB...OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. IT THEN SHIFTS
TO WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT
WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THIS CONFIGURATION
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. ALSO...THE ETA-NAM INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME DECREASE OF MOISTURE IN EASTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE GFS GOES FROM MAINLY AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE 500 MB
HIGH CENTER WOBBLES AROUND. IT KEEPS DECENT MOISTURE OVER MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THOUGH. SO...WE WILL KEEP SOMETHING OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL STORM THREAT GOING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY MORE THAN A DAY
OR TWO IN ADVANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. TAFS FOR KPHX...AND KIWA...AIR MASS MORE
STABLE THIS EVENING...WITH LESS PROBABILITY OF EVENING TSTM
FORMATION OVER TAF SITES. ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
GUSTY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WITH STORMS ENCROACHING ON KIWA FROM THE
EAST...OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLY GETTING TO KPHX.   TAFS FOR
KYUM...KIPL...AND KBLH ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

AJ/DS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
620 AM MST WED AUG 3 2005

AZZ020>023-025>028-CAZ031>033-040700-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
620 AM PDT WED AUG 3 2005 /620 AM MST WED AUG 3 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NOT TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY
DAY...WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AZZ024-040700-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS-
620 AM MST WED AUG 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY DAY...WITH FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CAZ030-040700-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
620 AM PDT WED AUG 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY DAY...WITH FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ESTLE