Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 230025
SVRPSR
AZC013-230130-
/O.NEW.KPSR.SV.W.0005.050223T0025Z-050223T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 PM MST TUE FEB 22 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH-CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 630 PM MST

* AT 518 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAVE CREEK...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  SCOTTSDALE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  ANTHEM...SEVEN SPRINGS...CAMP CREEK...NEW RIVER...CAVE CREEK AND
  CAREFREE.

LAT...LON 3377 11216 3370 11181 3402 11167 3408 11212

$$

DG

000 
WWUS55 KPSR 230104
SVSPSR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
604 PM MST TUE FEB 22 2005

AZC013-230130-
/O.CON.KPSR.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-050223T0130Z/
MARICOPA AZ-
604 PM MST TUE FEB 22 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...

AT 552 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL.  MEDIA REPORTS 
JUST BEFORE 6 PM INDICATED HAIL TO DIME SIZE OCCURRED WITH THIS 
STORM IN THE CAVE CREEK AREA.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS 
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3377 11216 3370 11181 3402 11167 3408 11212

$$

SAS

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-292245-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST SAT JAN 29 2005

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...MUCH LESS RAIN IS
EXPECTED COMPARED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THIS PAST WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT
TIMES AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS NEAR OR OVER ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM STILL DEVELOPING AS IT DROPS DOWN OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND AS IT CROSSED SE CA HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AS THE FRONT HAS
PROGRESSED FURTHER E. HOWEVER...80-100M H5 HEIGHT FALLS THAT ARE
STILL EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD INITIATE SUFFICIENT OMEGAS TO GIVE GOOD
LIFT TO WHAT MOISTURE WE DO HAVE AVAILABLE...SO STILL EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TODAY. FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY NOTED BY LINE
OF PRECIP ON KIWA 88D COULD GIVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT
MOVES THRU THE GREATER PHX AREA...ESPECIALLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE BY TIME OF AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AZ
PORTION OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AFTER
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF MOVING MAIN LOW INTO SRN ROCKYS
BUT THEN DEVELOPING BAGGY TROUGH OVER SRN AZ. THIS IS BEING PROGGED
TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE TO OUR S OR SW. AT
THE SAME TIME...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT
AND DRIER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THIS...LOW MAY GET
NUDGED BACK OVER THE STATE BY MIDWEEK AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES
AGAIN AS SOME MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MORE ON THIS IN
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. TO BE SURE...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH HEIGHTS WELL BE NORMAL. ALSO EXPECTING A DECENT N/S
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TAKE SHAPE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE CO RIVER. IN THE MEANTIME...CURRENT FORECASTS
APPEAR IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

ESTLE