Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
240 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING AN ARC OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING JUST WEST OF FCST/A CLOSE TO MID LEVEL LOW.
STORMS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST NAM MODEL TRACKS 7H LOW EAST ALONG
UT/ID BORDER TONIGHT. 7H LOW SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS SE CORNER
OF ID BY 12Z MON. LATEST NAM KEEPS A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS SE ZONES
MOST OF TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG SFC COLD FRONT
INCREASES. THUS HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF POPS MOST AREAS (HIGHEST POPS
SE ZONES). BY LATE MONDAY UPPER LOW ACROSS MT WILL TAKE OVER AND
KEEP ID IN COOL NW FLOW. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ON MONDAY GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF COLD UPPER LOW. NAM MODEL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NW FLOW AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE (GFS
DRY). MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH CLEARING. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROF (POSITIVE TILT) APPROACHES AREA.
THIS TROF WILL SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO TRACK ACROSS AREA EARLY WED. THIS WILL BE A RATHER COLD
TROF WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS. UPPER TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDEST
AIR SHOULD ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AS ONE FINAL SPOKE OF ENERGY ROUNDS
DEEP TROF. PER GFS... TROF SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY SAT
AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST ATTM.

WINTHER
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TODAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY
(ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
525 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2005

IDZ017>025-031-032-301200-
LOST RIVER/PASHIMEROI-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
525 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO
40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
REPORTS.  THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER
HOTLINE...OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DSH