Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

KPAH 88D RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT. LAPS DATA REVEALS FA AIR MASS (CAPE) DESTABILIZED
INTO THE 1600-2100 J/KG2 RANGE. INHIBITING FACTORS SEEM TO BE LACK
OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY...WITH BROAD SWLYS NOTED
ACROSS FA WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY WELL YIELD SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO PERHATSM WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DIURNALLY MOST UNSTABLE PART OF DAY...THRU 02Z.

AFT 02Z...EXPECT VERY BRIEF LULL...THEN PERHAPS OUR BEST STRONG TO
SVR STORM THREAT...AS COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY SEWARD
DIVING UPPER LOW AND STRONG DYNAMICAL PVA IS ROTATED AROUND IT.
BELIEVE BEST POPS WL BE ALONG AHEAD OF SAID FRONT/LOW PASSAGE...ESP
FROM 06Z-12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER BOX FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE UPPER LOW TRACK IS PERHAPS LEAST THIS
RUN BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LINGER ONLY A VERY EARLY
FRIDAY POP IN OUR FAR SERN MOST COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IMPACT OF THE DIFFERING UPPER LOW
TRACKS ARE ON TEMPS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT CHANCES OF PCPN DOWN THE
ROAD. THE NGM MOS HAS BACKED OFF ITS EXTREME HIGHS AT 24 AND 48
HOURS...BUT IS STILL THE WARM MODEL. THE ETA HAS WARMED AND THE GFS
HAS MAINTAINED THE COOLER APPROACH...PROBABLY PER PMDHMD THAT ITS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK HAS SLOWED THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE
NET RESULT WAS THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IN RETURN PCPN CHANCES ON DAYS 3
AND 6 WAS MINIMAL...SO WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY IN HOPES OF SOME
BETTER MODEL CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. ALSO...WEVE NUDGED
OFF A TOTAL GFS BIAS TO A BETTER GFS/NAM BLEND GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AND THE PMDHMD MODEL TRENDS ASSESSMENT (PRO NAM).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM AND 289 TIL 9PM ALL COUNTIES.
MO...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM ALL COUNTIES.
IL...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM ALL COUNTIES.
IN...SVR TSM WATCH 289 TIL 9PM ALL COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-201000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...CAIRO...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
1144 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS TO BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED IN THE WATCH AREA...AND JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE WATCH AREA...SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR THEIR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION REQUEST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
249 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE PEMBROKE           36.79N 87.33W
05/19/2005  60 MPH           CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK GROVE               37.84N 88.08W
05/19/2005                   GALLATIN           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BIG SIGN BLOWN DOWN ACROSS 41A NEAR OAK GROVE. SIGNS DOWN
            ALONG I-24 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 86 AND 89.

&&

RST