Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2005

Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Paducah, KY

May 19, 2005Caldwell County, Hopkins County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at May 19, 2005, 6:15 PM CDT for Caldwell County, Hopkins County, Kentucky. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 19, 2005, 6:15 PM CDT (23:15 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2005, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Caldwell County, KY, Hopkins County, KY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 194 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -113 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1341 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KPAH 192320
FFWPAH
KYC033-107-200215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
615 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.
  HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED TWO TO THREE INCHES DURING THE     
  LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CALDWELL AND HOPKINS COUNTY BORDER.        
  TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA CONTINUES AND WILL    
  DURING THE EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE   
  INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.  A TRAINED SPOTTER HAS REPORTED FULL      
  CREEKS WITHIN THIS AREA.  BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS OF AREAS NEAR THE 
  TRADEWATER RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CAVE CREEK AND SUGAR CREEK.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CRESWELL...BEULAH...NEBO...MORTONS
  GAP...MADISONVILLE...DAWSON SPRINGS...HANSON...EARLINGTON AND      
  FARMERSVILLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
PADUCAH.

LAT...LON 3715 8802 3704 8789 3708 8772 3716 8769
      3712 8754 3715 8740 3750 8742 3734 8785
      3724 8803

$$

MTF

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS73 KPAH 200015
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
709 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

KYC033-107-200215-
HOPKINS KY-CALDWELL KY-
709 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR CALDWELL AND
HOPKINS COUNTIES...

AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT TWO AND A HALF TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN NEAR THE 
CALDWELL AND HOPKINS COUNTY BORDERS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH 
PROMPTED THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING.  
HOWEVER THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER THE TRADEWATER RIVER 
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CAVE CREEK AND SUGAR CREEK.  LOCATIONS 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE TRADEWATER RIVER SHOULD 
REMAIN VERY CAUTIOUS OF POTENTIALLY FAST RIVER RISES.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE 
FARMERSVILLE...CRESWELL...BEULAH...MORTONS GAP...FRYER...OLNEY...AND 
EARLINGTON.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
TRIBUTARIES OF THE TRADEWATER RIVER...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS 
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3715 8802 3704 8789 3708 8772 3716 8769
      3712 8754 3715 8740 3750 8742 3734 8785
      3724 8803

$$

MTF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 19, 2:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 19, 2:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

KPAH 88D RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT. LAPS DATA REVEALS FA AIR MASS (CAPE) DESTABILIZED
INTO THE 1600-2100 J/KG2 RANGE. INHIBITING FACTORS SEEM TO BE LACK
OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY...WITH BROAD SWLYS NOTED
ACROSS FA WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY WELL YIELD SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO PERHATSM WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DIURNALLY MOST UNSTABLE PART OF DAY...THRU 02Z.

AFT 02Z...EXPECT VERY BRIEF LULL...THEN PERHAPS OUR BEST STRONG TO
SVR STORM THREAT...AS COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY SEWARD
DIVING UPPER LOW AND STRONG DYNAMICAL PVA IS ROTATED AROUND IT.
BELIEVE BEST POPS WL BE ALONG AHEAD OF SAID FRONT/LOW PASSAGE...ESP
FROM 06Z-12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER BOX FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE UPPER LOW TRACK IS PERHAPS LEAST THIS
RUN BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LINGER ONLY A VERY EARLY
FRIDAY POP IN OUR FAR SERN MOST COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IMPACT OF THE DIFFERING UPPER LOW
TRACKS ARE ON TEMPS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT CHANCES OF PCPN DOWN THE
ROAD. THE NGM MOS HAS BACKED OFF ITS EXTREME HIGHS AT 24 AND 48
HOURS...BUT IS STILL THE WARM MODEL. THE ETA HAS WARMED AND THE GFS
HAS MAINTAINED THE COOLER APPROACH...PROBABLY PER PMDHMD THAT ITS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK HAS SLOWED THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE
NET RESULT WAS THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IN RETURN PCPN CHANCES ON DAYS 3
AND 6 WAS MINIMAL...SO WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY IN HOPES OF SOME
BETTER MODEL CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. ALSO...WEVE NUDGED
OFF A TOTAL GFS BIAS TO A BETTER GFS/NAM BLEND GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AND THE PMDHMD MODEL TRENDS ASSESSMENT (PRO NAM).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM AND 289 TIL 9PM ALL COUNTIES.
MO...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM ALL COUNTIES.
IL...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM ALL COUNTIES.
IN...SVR TSM WATCH 289 TIL 9PM ALL COUNTIES.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 11:44 AM CDT, 6 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-201000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...CAIRO...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
1144 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS TO BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED IN THE WATCH AREA...AND JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE WATCH AREA...SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR THEIR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION REQUEST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 19, 4:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORGANFIELD             37.68N 87.91W
05/19/2005                   UNION              KY   UTILITY COMPANY

            SMALL TREES DOWN ALONG US 60 IN UNION CUUNTY

&&

MTF

Local storm report, May 19, 4:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
442 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             10 NNW POPLAR BLUFF     36.90N 90.48W
05/19/2005  1.00 INCH        BUTLER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ALONG US HWY 60 AT CARTER/BUTLER CNTY
            LINE.

&&

MTF

Local storm report, May 19, 4:53 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             DUDLEY                  36.79N 90.09W
05/19/2005  0.75 INCH        STODDARD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL AND 28 MPH WINDS IN DUDLEY

&&

MTF

Local storm report, May 19, 5:21 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             5 N PRINCETON           37.18N 87.88W
05/19/2005  0.75 INCH        CALDWELL           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL ON HWY 293N IN CALDWELL COUNTY

0500 PM     HAIL             5 WNW PRINCETON         37.13N 87.97W
05/19/2005  0.75 INCH        CALDWELL           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG HWY 293 N IN CALDWELL CNTY

&&

MTF

Local storm report, May 19, 5:51 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             LIVERMORE               37.49N 87.13W
05/19/2005  1.75 INCH        MCLEAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN LIVERMORE. SMALLER SIZES OBSERVED
            EARLIER.

&&

DP

Local storm report, May 19, 6:06 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             2 S FARMERSVILLE        37.17N 87.91W
05/19/2005  0.75 INCH        CALDWELL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL S OF FARMERSVILLE

&&

DP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 19, 2:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian, Todd	60 min
May 19, 3:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	56 min
May 19, 4:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hopkins	40 min
May 19, 4:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell	50 min
May 19, 4:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hopkins	66 min
May 19, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell	43 min
May 19, 5:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	McLean	40 min
May 19, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian, Hopkins	48 min
May 19, 6:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell	43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2005 Every flash flood warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.