Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN WITH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24
HOURS. PRE FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MID LVL SHORT WAVE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SFC FEATURE....BUT INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS THE AREA
WORKS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST RAPID CLEARING DURING MID/LATE MORNING...BEHIND THIS
AREA OF STORMS...AS MID LVL DRY PUNCH SWEEPS IN.

THEN...MAIN SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG MID LVL SHORT WAVE DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE STL AREA. THESE FEATURES...IN COMBINATION WITH
EXPECTED STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
AND EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS FOR STORM INITIATION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
WESTERN IL. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
AND WABASH RIVERS.

MODELS STILL DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...IT WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN 50 TO 57
RANGE...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN CLOUDIER AREAS OF SW INDIANA AND NW
KY. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW SAT NIGHT...AND COULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN SNOW FLURRIES
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN SW IN/NW KY...BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT FAR
WITH THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SO A FREEZE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED...BUT FROST SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE WINDS
STAYING UP.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KY...NONE.
.MO...NONE.
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.

&&

GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1154 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-231000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...CAIRO...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
1154 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF LINE FROM NEAR CADIZ KENTUCKY...TO NEAR MT CARMEL ILLINOIS.  A
SLIGHT RISK EXISTS WESTWARD FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA...TO A LINE
FROM FULTON KENTUCKY TO MT VERNON ILLINOIS.

RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A DRY LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY.  THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
35 TO 40 MPH.  THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 5 PM.

THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STORMS TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

DRS