Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN WITH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24
HOURS. PRE FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MID LVL SHORT WAVE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SFC FEATURE....BUT INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS THE AREA
WORKS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST RAPID CLEARING DURING MID/LATE MORNING...BEHIND THIS
AREA OF STORMS...AS MID LVL DRY PUNCH SWEEPS IN.

THEN...MAIN SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG MID LVL SHORT WAVE DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE STL AREA. THESE FEATURES...IN COMBINATION WITH
EXPECTED STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
AND EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS FOR STORM INITIATION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
WESTERN IL. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO
AND WABASH RIVERS.

MODELS STILL DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...IT WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN 50 TO 57
RANGE...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN CLOUDIER AREAS OF SW INDIANA AND NW
KY. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW SAT NIGHT...AND COULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN SNOW FLURRIES
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN SW IN/NW KY...BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT FAR
WITH THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SO A FREEZE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED...BUT FROST SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE WINDS
STAYING UP.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KY...NONE.
.MO...NONE.
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.

&&

GM

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