Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
207 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THEN AGAIN NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST...AN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROF.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE EXPOSED TO A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES COMBINED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WEAK AND ILL DEFINED
...CONSEQUENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF POPS...QPF...ETC. THEREFORE TRIED TO COME WITH A BLEND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION. FORCING AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD TOUCH
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN MODELS NOT
THAT FAR APART. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE CWA AROUND 06Z SATURDAY...BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ALSO CONSISTENT ABOUT
MOVING ALL THE PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUNDAY OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. RATHER THAN TRY TO GET TOO FANCY WITH TIMING
THAT FAR OUT...DECIDED TO CLEAR OUT POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE COMBINATION OF
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
KATRINA AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE FOR MONDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY WILL GO WITH SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A MAV/MET MOS BLEND.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

JAP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
949 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

MOZ107-260415-
CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VAN BUREN
949 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

...HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY MISSOURI...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH 11 PM.

THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE BRIEF...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. IF YOU
LIVE OR CAMP NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...BE WATCHFUL FOR SHARP
RISES AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND...IF NECESSARY.

SINCE 730 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF VAN
BUREN...BETWEEN HOUSE CREEK AND CLEAR SPRING...ALONG ROUTE D.

ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
SAME AREA THROUGH 11 PM. ANOTHER HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...PERSONS LIVING BETWEEN THE CURRENT RIVER AND
HIGHWAY 60...STRETCHING FROM VAN BUREN TO HUNTER...SHOULD BE
WATCHFUL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

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