Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
MESO TROF OVER PAH FA...IN ASSOCIATION W/ MCV INITIATED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER NRN/NERN PTNS FA. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PICKING
UP VORT BUT DO DECENT JOB MODELING CONVECTIVE AREA...ALTHOUGH PMDHMD
POINTS OUT GFS FEEDBACK. BASIC MODEL LINE IS FOR TSMS TO MOVE EAST
AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOO. THIS WILL GIVE HIGHEST POPS NE-SE EARLY
TODAY...THEN AS ATMOS JUICES UP...SCT PM STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN. WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH OF A TAPER OF POPS...HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
FA-WIDE...WITH THE SAME GOING FOR TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ALL DRAG A COLD FRONT THRU THE FA. THE ETA
IS SLOWER AND LINGERS PCPN LONGER...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN THE PUSH OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THRU THE FA. WE
OPTED FOR A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH IF NOT LEANING ON THE ETA...GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY THE LAST SUCH FRONT HAD MAKING IT THRU THE FA. PLUS
WE WL BE HAVING BY THEN KATRINA REMNANTS TO DEAL WITH...WHICH MAY
EFFECTIVELY SLOW DOWN EWARD PROGRESS OF SAID FRONT. MOS POPS ARE ALL
HIGH FOR SAT WITH THE FRONT IN PLAY...THEN WE WE END THE POPS SLOWLY
SAT NIGHT...AS WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.

WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY-THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH ONE
COULD ARGUE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE ON ANY NUMBER OF TIME PERIODS.
CAUTIOUSLY BUYING THE GFS SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
FORECAST...W/KATRINA STAYING EAST AND MINOR RIDGING/DRIER AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY THRU THE TIME PERIOD.

WE FAVOR WARMER MOS UNTIL FROPA...AFTER WHICH WE BLEND INTO THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH WE DONT QUITE BUY (JUST YET) THE FULL
EXTENT OF THE DRIER/COOLER AIR THE GFS WANTS TO SINK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
353 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-270900-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
353 AM EST FRI AUG 26 2005 /353 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE QUAD STATE. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST...THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY.