Tornado Warning 19, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK APPEARS ABOUT TO UNFOLD. DRYLINE
MOVING/MIXING E ACROSS W OK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WINDS
BEHIND DRYLINE HAVE VEERED TO NEARLY DUE W IN SOME AREAS WHILE
WINDS OVER CENTRAL OK REMAIN S AND OCCASIONALLY SSE. CONVERGENCE
ZONE LINES UP WITH AXIS OF MAX SBCAPE RANGING FROM 4500 J/KG NEAR
KS BORDER TO OVER 6000 S OF KSPS. 18Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS CAP
WEAKENING...BUT WILL STILL TAKE SOME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE/LIFT
TO BREAK IT. TWO MESOSCALE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR ENHANCED SEVERE
POTENTIAL BY 22-00Z...ONE NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM SFC LOW/TRIPLE
POINT NEAR KS/OK BORDER...AND POSSIBLY NC TX AND SW OK NE TOWARD
CENTRAL OK WHERE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE PUNCHING INTO HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST UP N WHERE MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF...AND CHANCES ARE BETTER OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING AND LOW- LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING. OTHERWISE...EXTREME
CAPE AND 30KT OR SO OF MEAN LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
GIANT HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT REMAIN ISOLATED...MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
DRYLINE INTO DEEPER MOISTURE...AND CAN MAINTAIN BACKED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF IT...WILL HAVE ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR A WHILE AFTER SUNSET AS SFC WINDS
BACK SLIGHTLY AND LLJ BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W ACROSS OK AND N TX PANHANDLES
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR NOW MOVING SE
ACROSS E CO AND W KS. AS DRY LINE HALTS ACROSS W AND NCENTRAL OK
THIS EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE IT. MAY WELL SEE A LINE OF
STORMS BUILD DOWN THE FRONT AS IT ZIPS TOGETHER WITH THE DRYLINE.

CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING OVER S PARTS OF
AREA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND AND SO WILL THE VERY MOIST
AIR MASS NOW OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT ON SUN
LOOK TO BE ACROSS E AND S PARTS OF AREA.

ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO DAYS 3-7. SFC FRONT MAY DRIFT INTO AREA AROUND
MIDWEEK TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE RAIN-TSTORM CHANCES. OTHERWISE...
DRYLINE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF AREA. WEAKER MID LEVEL
FLOW AND LACK OF SFC BOUNDARIES WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES FOR THE
MOST PART. HOWEVER...THINGS LOOK DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING NEXT
WEEKEND AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROF DEVELOPS OUT W. WE MAY WELL HAVE
A STRONG CAP TO OVERCOME...BUT STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS
INCREASING CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE T-STORMS AT LEAST ALONG DRYLINE
INTO W PARTS OF CWA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ARE BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE
AND MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  85  69  90 /  60  30  40  20
HOBART OK         66  86  69  91 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  70  92 /  50  30  40  20
GAGE OK           57  85  67  91 /   0  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  85  67  90 /  60  20  30  20
DURANT OK         72  91  71  90 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS BOUNDED BY A LINE GENERALLY FROM WAKITA TO
LAWTON TO ARDMORE AND MUSKOGEE. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...EAST OF A LINE FROM FREEDOM
TO ALTUS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME IS FROM 3 PM TO 6 AM.

IMPACTS...
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 75 MPH WINDS. IF STORMS CAN
PERSIST AFTER DARK...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 3 PM THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG IT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO
75 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE DRYLINE...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...WHERE SHEAR WILL
BE GREATEST. STORMS WOULD THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY MERGING INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...WHILE
INFLUENCING THE REMAINDER OF THE RISK AREAS.

THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD BE UPGRADED TO
HIGH RISK LATER TODAY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELK CITY...TO PERRY...FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIE DURING THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

AFTER SUNDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...A CAPPING INVERSION AND
REDUCED WIND SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKZ027-042115-
GRADY OK-
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRADY COUNTY.

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TABLER IN GRADY COUNTY AT 400 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY AND WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
BEFORE 430 PM.

PEOPLE IN GRADY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKZ044-042115-
COTTON OK-
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COTTON COUNTY.

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WALTERS AT 407 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING QUICKLY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE BEFORE 430
PM.

PEOPLE IN COTTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKZ023-027-028-038-039-044-045-042130-
CADDO OK-COMANCHE OK-COTTON OK-GRADY OK-JEFFERSON OK-MCCLAIN OK-
STEPHENS OK-
414 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO...COMANCHE...COTTON...
GRADY...JEFFERSON...MCCLAIN AND STEPHENS COUNTIES.

AT 414 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTENSIFYING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
AMBER...TO RUSH SPRINGS...TO NEAR WALTERS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CADDO...COMANCHE...COTTON...GRADY...JEFFERSON...MCCLAIN AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CHICKASHA AND
DUNCAN...SHOULD KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
STAY CLOSE TO AN INFORMATION SOURCE...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMITH