Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT PERIOD. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO ALMOST NIL SOUTH.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER...DAMAGING WINDS
OVER 75 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS AT ANY TIME THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. PERSONNEL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER-END SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS AT
MIDDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STILL WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
WILL EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS IT APPROACHES OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS LATE TODAY. IF THE AIR AT LOW LEVELS CAN RECOVER FROM
THE EFFECTS OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE SURFACE DRY LINE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST TEXAS... AND
EXTREME INSTABILITY WOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 4000 BY EARLY EVENING
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...IF SKIES CLEAR AND
LOW LEVELS HEAT UP. THIS LEVEL OF INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT... WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES
MORE LIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY MID TO
LATE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AND BY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AFTER SATURDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...A CAPPING INVERSION AND
REDUCED WIND SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

24

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARMEN                  36.58N 98.46W
06/03/2005                   ALFALFA            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS MAIN STREET. REPORTED BY
            CIVIL DEFENSE, RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
534 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

OKZ007-008-012-013-032300-
GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK-KAY OK-NOBLE OK-
534 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND
NOBLE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
RENFROW TO GARBER AT 534 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE IN GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF PONCA CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
603 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

OKZ023-032315-
CADDO OK-
603 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF STECKER AT 603
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CADDO COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
856 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

OKZ007-008-040215-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
856 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
GRANT AND NORTHERN KAY COUNTIES AT 856 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.  SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SIX