Severe Thunderstorm Warning 632, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN THE
SHORT TERM. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED AND LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
TIMING OF MID LEVEL FORCING...AND ARE VERIFYING WELL WITH
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ETA FOR UPPER AIR AND
SURFACE FEATURES...BUT LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE MORE CONSISTENT
GFS AT UPPER LEVELS. A 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA FROM HOLLIS TO DUNCAN TO MARIETTA. EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL FORM SOUTH OF THAT
LINE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH IN
THE MORNING. RAIN TOTALS SHOULD INCREASE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG A ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET EARLY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGS 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS
TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY SEE NO SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
REACHED. ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AND
THE WINDS WILL CALM DRAMATICALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM STILL FAVORS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT
WILL PUSH EAST OF I-35 BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OUT OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING...LEAVING HALLOWEEN NIGHT A LITTLE DAMP
AND CHILLY...BUT WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING.

THE COOL DOWN WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PROMOTE A TROF IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
UPWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY...HAS POTENTIAL TO WARM UP TO NEAR 80 AT
MANY LOCATIONS WITH A STRONGER WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
CYCLOGENESIS MAY TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  42  69  43 /  80   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  40  72  44 /  40   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  42  73  44 /  70   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  34  72  42 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  39  69  43 /  90   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  45  71  43 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
715 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SCATTERED STORMS AIDING IN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY OCT 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KNOX CITY... TO WICHITA FALLS...TO ARDMORE...AND
ATOKA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE RISK AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A SQUALL LINE POSSIBLY FORMING
NEAR THE FRONT. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THESE STORMS. SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON...
AS THE FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY BEFORE
DECREASING MONDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

SIX

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