Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Norman, OK

July 1, 2005Pottawatomie County, Oklahoma

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 1, 2005, 7:06 AM CDT for Pottawatomie County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2005, 7:06 AM CDT (12:06 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2005, 7:32 AM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Pottawatomie County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 1, 5:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 1, 4:09 AM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 4:09 AM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 30, 12:00 PM CDT, 19 hours 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN...
CENTRAL AND ALL OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... PRIMARILY FROM MID TO LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM MANGUM... TO
LAWTON... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO COALGATE.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THE TORNADO RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW... BUT NON-ZERO.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO CONDUCT SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON... BUT MORE LIKELY FROM
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
UTAH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS EVENING WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 3000... WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... WITH STORMS THEN ORGANIZING INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO MAINLY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE FIRST 3
HOURS OR SO AFTER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL... A
STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A TORNADO WITHIN THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF STORM EVOLUTION.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUL 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY.  THUS... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS...
INCLUDING SOME SEVERE... WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  AFTER A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD... ACCOMPANIED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY JULY 1.

 MILLER

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 4:55 AM CDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 1, 5:04 AM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:20 AM CDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:37 AM CDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:57 AM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 1, 6:00 AM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 2:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Ellis, Harper	40 min
Jul 1, 3:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Ellis, Harper, Woods, Woodward	47 min
Jul 1, 3:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Dewey	30 min
Jul 1, 3:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Major, Woods, Woodward	50 min
Jul 1, 4:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham, Custer, Roger Mills, Washita	43 min
Jul 1, 4:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Dewey	34 min
Jul 1, 4:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Caddo, Custer, Washita	47 min
Jul 1, 5:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Canadian	45 min
Jul 1, 7:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Pontotoc	30 min
Jul 1, 7:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Coal, Johnston	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.