Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. 00Z ETA STILL ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT..PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO LLJ. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA
AND DELAY HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

30

-----------------------------------------------------
309 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER... OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT... AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE COMPLEXES... ASSUMING
THEY FORM AS PLANNED... WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL WARMING WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND
SHOULD CLAMP OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE VALUES... EVEN ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES... ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED WET GROUND WILL
SLOW THE WARMUP A BIT.

ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE VERY DEFINITE ABOUT IT... MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS DO SUGGEST A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  69  91 /  50  30  40  30
HOBART OK         72  93  70  93 /  40  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  72  95 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           67  90  66  93 /  60  20  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  67  90 /  70  20  30  30
DURANT OK         73  97  72  91 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

21/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN...
CENTRAL AND ALL OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... PRIMARILY FROM MID TO LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM MANGUM... TO
LAWTON... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO COALGATE.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THE TORNADO RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW... BUT NON-ZERO.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO CONDUCT SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON... BUT MORE LIKELY FROM
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
UTAH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS EVENING WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 3000... WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... WITH STORMS THEN ORGANIZING INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO MAINLY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE FIRST 3
HOURS OR SO AFTER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL... A
STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A TORNADO WITHIN THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF STORM EVOLUTION.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUL 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY.  THUS... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS...
INCLUDING SOME SEVERE... WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  AFTER A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD... ACCOMPANIED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY JULY 1.

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
217 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

OKZ004-005-009-010-010745-
ELLIS OK-HARPER OK-WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-
217 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS...HARPER...WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 23 MILES
NORTH OF ROSSTON TO 61 MILES WEST OF CATESBY...OR NEAR PERRYTON
TEXAS AT 217 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST HARPER COUNTY BY 245 AM. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS...HARPER...WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

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