Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVERGENCE HAS STEADILY INCREASED ALONG A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
NEAR GARDEN CITY...WOODWARD...WEATHERFORD AND DUNCAN. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPES NEARING 3000 J/KJ WITH LESS THAN 60 CIN. THE
LACK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS SUGGESTS CAP IS STILL HOLDING WITH ANOTHER
COUPLE OR MORE HOURS OF INSOLATION NEEDED TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP.
HIGH BASED CONVECTION RESULTING FROM DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...HOWEVER THE AREAL COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM CONVECTIVE
MIXING. ANYHOW...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST A
SMALL PLAYER IN THE NEAR FUTURE WEATHER.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND SUSTAINED
CONVECTION ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LESS WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO
NEAR WICHITA FALLS...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE HERE MAY BE WEAKER. WILL
CONTINUE EMPHASIZING THIS SCENARIO WITH POPS INCREASING ACCORDINGLY
BUT NOT CATEGORICAL. SHOULD SEE A LARGE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STORM MERGERS OCCUR WITH CLUSTERS
SUPPORTING A WIND/HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT....STORMS MAY
WEAKEN AS CAPE DECREASES/CIN INCREASES BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM
COVERAGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED. BY MORNING...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS MAY
STILL BE INFLUENCING THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RED RIVER. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
NEAR A DRYLINE WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT CAP WILL BE STRONG
FARTHER WEST WITH ONLY A WEAK WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT TO THE
STEERING FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD TO ALSO RISE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH 90S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR 70 FOR LOWS THROUGH DAY 7.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  67  92 /  70  30  30  10
HOBART OK         67  91  68  93 /  60  30  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  92  69  93 /  60  40  30  10
GAGE OK           65  89  67  93 /  70  20  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     65  87  66  90 /  70  30  30  10
DURANT OK         69  91  69  91 /  70  40  20  10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS ALL OF THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 1 PM...WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...
WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS TENNIS BALLS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER
DARK...THE RISK WILL SHIFT TO MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW WITH STORMS THIS MORNING.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BREAK AS THE
MORNING STORMS MOVE AWAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE AND
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. WITH THIS INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS SOON AS EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

THE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 3000 BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
...MOST LIKELY ALONG OR NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE EVENT...AND THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND
MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SOME LARGE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY...JUNE 17.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

OKZ004-162200-
HARPER OK-
434 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARPER COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSSTON AT 434
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HARPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

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