Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER CONVECTION ATTM JUST NORTH OF OKLAHOMA BORDER IN SOUTHWEST
SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS. STORM STILL TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT SEEM TO BE WEAKENING AS STORMS
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM BOUNDARY INTO THE COOLER AIR.  APPEARS IN SHORT
TERM THAT STORMS IN AND AROUND ALFALFA COUNTY WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT BETTER INSTABILITY AND JET STRUCTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT UNDER AND NORTH OF UPPER LOW.

APPEARS NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER WILL COME LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND MAYBE STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  53  34  60 /  40  10   0  10
HOBART OK         41  56  35  63 /  20  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  61  37  65 /  10   0   0  10
GAGE OK           37  52  29  62 /  50  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  50  32  57 /  90  60  10  10
DURANT OK         50  62  38  62 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES THAT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EAST OF A LINE FROM MADILL... TO ADA... TO HOLDENVILLE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE
MODERATE RISK...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO... TO CHICKASHA...
TO MARIETTA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY
KANSAS AT MIDDAY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO... IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WITH A TRAILING
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MARIETTA. THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE... THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... WHILE
MOVING MORE SLOWLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY THOSE IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS... PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS. A TEMPORARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN LOWER INSTABILITIES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED... THE PRESENCE OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... COULD RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE... DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE... ALONG WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS... WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL... HIGH WINDS... AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY MAR 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE DRY LINE... RESULTING IN
A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN TODAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... AND AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE  36.74N 98.20W
03/21/2005  1.00 INCH        ALFALFA            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY KOCO CHANNEL 5.

&&

TY/JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 SSE BYRON             36.87N 98.28W
03/21/2005  1.75 INCH        ALFALFA            OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED BY AMORITA FD.

0316 PM     TORNADO          3 SE AMORITA            36.89N 98.26W
03/21/2005                   ALFALFA            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON GROUND APPROXIMATELY 1516C-1525C.

0313 PM     HAIL             CROMWELL                35.34N 96.45W
03/21/2005  1.00 INCH        SEMINOLE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL COVERING GROUND.

0325 PM     TORNADO          CROMWELL                35.34N 96.45W
03/21/2005                   SEMINOLE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED.

0345 PM     TORNADO          10 E BYRON              36.90N 98.11W
03/21/2005                   ALFALFA            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE VORTEX TORNADO OBSCURED IN RAIN NEAR
            GRANT/ALFALFA COUNTY LINE.

&&

TY/JLP

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