Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO
INITIATE - SO FAR. 12Z OUN SOUNDING WAS CONTAMINATED BY DEVELOPING
STORMS AND THUS IS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF EXISTING ENVIRONMENT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS OA FIELDS INDICATE SBCAPE IN 3000-4000 RANGE
SE OF SFC FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT TOWARD NW OK. STILL
ANTICIPATE STORM INITIATION BEFORE 00Z...PERHAPS AIDED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. DYNAMIC FORCING AT BOTH LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT ACROSS AREA WILL
SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE T-STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME BIG HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE. TORNADO POTENTIAL
CONSIDERABLY LOWER TODAY...BUT STILL NONZERO AS CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY PERSISTS...AND COULD RE-IGNITE AFTER DARK NEAR OR JUST
N OF THE SFC FRONT AS INCREASING LLJ ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.

WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS ORGANIZED TONIGHT...CHANCES OF
ANY RESIDUAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS ON MONDAY - OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING VIA LINGERING CLOUDS ETC - WILL BE LESS. THUS
EXPECT A MORE HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS AND LOWER STORM CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP. SAME REASONING MAY
APPLY THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT LATEST ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE N PLAINS AND DRIVES A FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON WED. LOW POPS THEREFORE ARE INCLUDED FOR WED.

MED-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS INTO THE SW STATES LATER IN THE WEEK. IT WILL BECOME MORE
DIFFICULT WITH TIME TO BRING ANY STRONG SYSTEMS OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THIS FAR S...BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING
WILL DO SO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING IS AROUND
FRI-SAT AT THIS TIME...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CHANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD ACROSS W AND N PARTS OF THE CWA. LOWER CHANCES ARE
EXTENDED INTO SUN AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOWER HEIGHTS
MAY REMAIN OVER THE SW. IF NOT...STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE CENTRAL/N ROCKIES COULD PUT US BACK INTO A NOCTURNAL MCS
PATTERN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD A WEEK OR TWO AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  71  90 /  30  10  10  10
HOBART OK         69  91  71  93 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  91  71  93 /  30  10  10  10
GAGE OK           66  92  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  90  72  90 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         71  89  72  90 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL...WESTERN...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO
FAIRVIEW...TO CHEYENNE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME IS FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 75 MPH WINDS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...PARTICULARLY FROM 3
PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING HAD BECOME STATIONARY NEAR A LINE FROM BARTLESVILLE TO
GUTHRIE TO ALTUS AT MIDDAY AND A DRYLINE WAS INTERSECTING THE FRONT
IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
TODAY.

ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
HUMID AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF
HEATING AND MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED TO LINE UP JUST EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT THE UNSTABLE AIR UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST TEXAS...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
FORM MOST ANYWHERE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN OKLAHOMA.

AS STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR
AND A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS WILL RESULT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE TO THE EAST OR EVEN SOUTHEAST AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WHILE TORNADOES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY...THE THREAT
FROM TORNADOES IS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP OF WARM AIR AND
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER MOST OF THE TIME.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 AM
MONDAY.

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 W ADA                 34.78N 96.80W
06/04/2005  60 MPH           PONTOTOC           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED WIND GUST

0550 PM     HAIL             BETHANY                 35.51N 97.64W
06/04/2005  0.75 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
106 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             2 NE CHICKASHA          35.06N 97.93W
06/04/2005  0.75 INCH        GRADY              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0645 PM     HAIL             2 SW LAKE CARL BLACKWEL 36.11N 97.22W
06/04/2005  1.00 INCH        PAYNE              OK   PUBLIC

0520 PM     HAIL             2 SW NINNEKAH           34.93N 97.94W
06/04/2005  0.75 INCH        GRADY              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0620 PM     HAIL             5 NNW RUSH SPRINGS      34.85N 97.99W
06/04/2005  1.00 INCH        GRADY              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0618 PM     HAIL             10 N VERNON             34.30N 99.28W
06/04/2005  2.50 INCH        WILBARGER          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED ON HWY 183

0631 PM     HAIL             2 S RUSH SPRINGS        34.75N 97.96W
06/04/2005  0.75 INCH        GRADY              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0630 PM     HAIL             1 WNW VERNON            34.16N 99.30W
06/04/2005  1.00 INCH        WILBARGER          TX   PUBLIC

0705 PM     HAIL             6 SE RUSH SPRINGS       34.72N 97.88W
06/04/2005  1.00 INCH        GRADY              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
114 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             10 WSW GUTHRIE          35.82N 97.59W
06/04/2005  2.00 INCH        LOGAN              OK   PUBLIC

0655 PM     HAIL             10 WSW GUTHRIE          35.82N 97.59W
06/04/2005  0.88 INCH        LOGAN              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE