Severe Thunderstorm Warning 205, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
245 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND
TEMPERATURES. ABR RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CELLS OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG COLD FRONT.  EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN
ACTION...RIDE INTO WESTERN MN THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE
LINE/LINEAR MODE/DEVELOPING...AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN DURING THE
EVENING.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH-INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN FOR TORNADO THREAT.  HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL 1-2 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE IN SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.  THE LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO PRODUCE 1 INCH RAINS IN
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME..WITH DAMAGING WINDS A DECENT THREAT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EXIT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z.  RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END WITH CAA LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA LATER TONIGHT.

COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA. MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS SHOWERS HERE.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. WILL FOLLOW MOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.

LONGER TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW TURNING WSW WITH MAIN TROUGH
AND EMBEDDED WAVES AT TIMES. UKMET IS A LITTLE QUICK EXITING THE
SYSTEM...BUT ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE TROUGH AXIS GOING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS LATER ON TUESDAY. GFS SUGGESTS JET WOULD NOT BE
AS STRONG AS WHAT WEVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WEEK...BUT ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AT US TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
OUR PATTERN THE LAST THREE WEEKS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

DWE/TDK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRUMAN                  43.83N 94.44W
06/29/2005                   MARTIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN

0845 PM     HAIL             3 W SHERBURN            43.65N 94.79W
06/29/2005  1.75 INCH        MARTIN             MN   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
900 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     S NEW ULM               44.31N 94.46W
06/29/2005                   BROWN              MN   STORM CHASER

0835 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 W MANKATO            44.17N 94.19W
06/29/2005                   BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
939 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TORNADO          1 W HEIDELBERG          44.49N 93.64W
06/29/2005                   LE SUEUR           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND 1 MILE WEST OF HEIDELBERG. MOVING
            NORTHEAST.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
939 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNZ057-065-073>074-082-091-300345-
BROWN-KANDIYOHI-MARTIN-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-WATONWAN-
939 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED TORNADO WATCH 554 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MINNESOTA THIS CANCELS 6 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA

KANDIYOHI... RENVILLE...

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

BROWN... MARTIN... WATONWAN...

IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

REDWOOD...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FAIRMONT...NEW ULM...OLIVIA...
REDWOOD FALLS...ST. JAMES AND WILLMAR.

MNZ044>045-052>053-060>063-070-077>078-085-093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-300800-
ANOKA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
MILLE LACS-RAMSEY-RICE-STEELE-WASHINGTON-BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-
EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST CROIX-
939 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 557 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

ANOKA... CHISAGO... DAKOTA...
HENNEPIN... ISANTI... KANABEC...
MILLE LACS... RAMSEY... WASHINGTON...

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

FREEBORN... RICE... STEELE...

IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

GOODHUE...

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

BARRON... POLK... RUSK...

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

CHIPPEWA... DUNN... EAU CLAIRE...
PEPIN... PIERCE... ST. CROIX...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALBERT LEA...BLAINE...CAMBRIDGE...
CENTER CITY...CHIPPEWA FALLS...DURAND...EAU CLAIRE...FARIBAULT...
HASTINGS...HUDSON...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE...MINNEAPOLIS...MORA...
OSCEOLA...OWATONNA...PRINCETON...RED WING...RICE LAKE...
RIVER FALLS...ST. PAUL AND STILLWATER.

MNZ043-049>051-058>059-066>069-075>076-083>084-092-300400-
BENTON-BLUE EARTH-CARVER-FARIBAULT-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MORRISON-NICOLLET-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WASECA-WRIGHT-
939 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 554 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA

BENTON... MCLEOD... MEEKER...
MORRISON... SHERBURNE... SIBLEY...
STEARNS... WRIGHT...

IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

CARVER... SCOTT...

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

BLUE EARTH... FARIBAULT... LE SUEUR...
NICOLLET... WASECA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BLUE EARTH...CHASKA...ELK RIVER...
GAYLORD...HUTCHINSON...LE SUEUR...LITCHFIELD...LITTLE FALLS...
MANKATO...MONTICELLO...SAUK RAPIDS...SHAKOPEE...ST. CLOUD...
ST. PETER AND WASECA.