Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
245 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND
TEMPERATURES. ABR RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CELLS OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG COLD FRONT.  EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN
ACTION...RIDE INTO WESTERN MN THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE
LINE/LINEAR MODE/DEVELOPING...AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN DURING THE
EVENING.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH-INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN FOR TORNADO THREAT.  HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL 1-2 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE IN SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.  THE LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO PRODUCE 1 INCH RAINS IN
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME..WITH DAMAGING WINDS A DECENT THREAT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EXIT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z.  RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END WITH CAA LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA LATER TONIGHT.

COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA. MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS SHOWERS HERE.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. WILL FOLLOW MOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.

LONGER TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW TURNING WSW WITH MAIN TROUGH
AND EMBEDDED WAVES AT TIMES. UKMET IS A LITTLE QUICK EXITING THE
SYSTEM...BUT ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE TROUGH AXIS GOING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS LATER ON TUESDAY. GFS SUGGESTS JET WOULD NOT BE
AS STRONG AS WHAT WEVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WEEK...BUT ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AT US TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
OUR PATTERN THE LAST THREE WEEKS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

DWE/TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-300400-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
335 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN MINNESOTA.

STORMS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA...WHILE
OTHERS DEVELOP IN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO.  LARGE HAIL AND POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND
STORMS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF
STORMS...TRACKING EASTWARD...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS. WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             1 SW GLENWOOD           45.64N 95.40W
06/29/2005  0.75 INCH        POPE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND GST     N CYRUS                 45.62N 95.74W
06/29/2005  70 MPH           POPE               MN   PUBLIC

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW LOWRY              45.74N 95.56W
06/29/2005  60 MPH           POPE               MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HWY 55 AND 310TH AVE

0638 PM     HAIL             GLENWOOD                45.65N 95.38W
06/29/2005  0.75 INCH        POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
652 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARFIELD                45.94N 95.49W
06/29/2005                   DOUGLAS            MN   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE GARFIELD           45.99N 95.42W
06/29/2005                   DOUGLAS            MN   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND LAKE IDA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
723 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONG PRAIRIE            45.98N 94.86W
06/29/2005                   TODD               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FEW TREES DOWN.

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 SE ALEXANDRIA        45.75N 95.20W
06/29/2005                   POPE               MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            FOUR INCH TREE BRANCHES ON INTERSTATE 94.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
724 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             2 S OSAKIS              45.84N 95.15W
06/29/2005  0.75 INCH        DOUGLAS            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
745 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             4 WNW LA SALLE          44.09N 94.64W
06/29/2005  1.00 INCH        WATONWAN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            15 MINUTES OF HAIL...ENDED AT 732 PM. MOSTLY PEA SIZE.

0740 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 WSW HANSKA            44.13N 94.57W
06/29/2005                   BROWN              MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            FUNNEL CLOUD VISIBLE SINCE 736 PM.

&&