Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 231814
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
114 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

WIC111-231900-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-050723T1900Z/
SAUK-
114 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR SAUK
COUNTY...

AT 111 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BARABOO TO
6 MILES EAST OF PLAIN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH
OF BARABOO TO 10 MILES WEST OF SAUK CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4352 9018 4323 9018 4322 8987 4349 8963

$$

MK

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 231838
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
138 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

WIC111-231900-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-050723T1900Z/
SAUK-
138 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR SAUK
COUNTY...

AT 133 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF LELAND...OR ABOUT NEAR
PRAIRIE DU SAC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4352 9016 4323 9016 4322 8985 4349 8961

$$

MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT...AND
HEAT ON SUNDAY.

SFC ANIMATION SHOWS HI PRES RDG STILL NOSING INTO CWA WITH QUIET
ERLY FLOW AND DRIER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER FAIRLY POTENT WAA/H8 SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACRS SE MN/NE IA WITH BAND OF
CONVECTION THERE. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE SWINGING THRU DURG MAINLY
MRNG HRS. MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY BACK IN DAKOTAS WITH MORE VIGOROUS
CLUSTER OF STORMS. GFS SHOWING ALMOST AN INCH OF RAIN BY 18Z. WILL
OPT FOR MAXES TODAY THAT ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS BUT LOWER THAN ETA
MOS. THIS LARGELY DUE TO UPSTREAM CLOUD/PCPN TRENDS.

POTENTIAL TIGHT SW/NE GRADIENT IN CWA POPS TNGT AS TSTMS RIDE AROUND
UPR RIDGE WITHIN WAA REGIME BEING FED BY LLJ. LLJ LARGELY FOCUSES
BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN IN NERN CWA AND FURTHER NORTH INTO GRB CWA.
BEST H8 THERMAL PACKING ACRS WRN CWA B4 6Z AND THEN ERN CWA AFT 6Z.
GFS/NAM HAVE H8 HOT PROD FIRMLY ENTRNCHED ACRS CWA BY 12Z SUN.

THE HOT H8 AXIS THEN SITS ACROSS CWA FOR SUN WITH THE H8 TEMPS STILL
WITHIN 24C TO 26C RANGE...HOTTEST NR WI/IL BORDER. WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES STILL SHOWING VALUES AOA 105. ATMOS CAPPED SO WILL RETAIN
GOING DRY FCST.

MON THROUGH TUE TIME FRAME SHOWING SERIES OF RIPPLES WITHIN MORE
ZONAL H5 FLOW. H2 PROGS INDICATING CWA SITTING BENEATH RRQ OF ULJ...
WITH AREAS OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. H8 CONVERGENCE ALSO A PLAYER...SO
COULD SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RUNS WITH THIS REGIME...DEPENDING OF
COURSE ON WHERE BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SETS UP.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...ZONES 46-47...51-52...56>60...62>72.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241000-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY NORTH OF MONTELLO.  OVER
THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO NEAR 110.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

DETAILED WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS MILWAUKEE
WEB-PAGE...WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE     /LOWER CASE/

LMZ643>646-665-241000-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
SHEBOYGAN WI TO PORT WASHINGTON-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WISCONSIN NEARSHORE WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HIGH WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE MET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE
TO WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

DETAILED WEATHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE ON THE NWS MILWAUKEE
WEB-PAGE...WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE     /LOWER CASE/

HENTZ