Wind Advisory 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

000 
WWUS74 KMEG 151645
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUSTAINED ABOVE 25 MILES PER HOUR
WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MILES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED. THIS MAY POSE A THREAT TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
TRAVELING ON AREA ROADWAYS. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION THIS
AFTERNOON IF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-160000-
/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051116T0000Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE(AR)-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON(MS)-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE(MS)-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...
CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILLE...CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...
OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN...UNION CITY...
MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...
HUNTINGDON...COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...
GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
1045 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 MILES PER HOUR...WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MILES PER HOUR.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS74 KMEG 152141
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT DURING THE EVENING.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-160000-
/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051116T0000Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE(AR)-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON(MS)-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE(MS)-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIDIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS74 KMEG 160012
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...WINDS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST...

A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MIDSOUTH AT THIS TIME. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTHWESTERLY 
WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-160300-
/O.EXP.KMEG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051116T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.WI.Y.0002.051116T0012Z-051116T0300Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE(AR)-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON(MS)-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE(MS)-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...
CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILLE...CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...
OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN...UNION CITY...
MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...
HUNTINGDON...COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...
GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
612 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING...WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
428 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH RISK AREA...

...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH...

A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY...INITIATED
BY A STRONG 120 KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK NOW DROPPING INTO
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BEND AND EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS...THE REGION WILL BECOME LOCATED IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
SWINGS THROUGH IT WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER NORTH OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND FURTHER BACK SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES IT WILL HELP TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
OVER THE AREA...WHICH AS OF 09Z WAS ANALYZED AT 40 KTS PER THE OKO
WIND PROFILER. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
STRENGTHEN TO OVER 60 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MIXING TO
HEIGHTS WHERE THESE STRONG WINDS EXIST WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AREAWIDE TODAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SHEAR PROFILES TO BE VERY
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 150-300 M2/S2 AFTER 18Z. SO OVERALL VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES...WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY FORM AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED SEVERE SQUALL LINE.

THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
THIS MORNING...AS THE WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY IS NOW SITUATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE FURTHER NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AT 09Z WERE
AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG
AREAWIDE LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD OVER
THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MORE
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARM
SECTOR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THEM TO GAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH
AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IT WILL HELP TO
DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT STILL VERY STRONG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP...WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS IN ANY PRONOUNCED BOW ECHOES
THAT CAN DEVELOP.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END ABRUPTLY AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD END BY EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RETURN FLOW OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SO THESE FRONTS WILL
SIMPLY SERVE TO REINFORCE COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME KILLING FREEZES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON SO PLAN NOW FOR
WHAT YOU WILL DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  40  52  30 /  90 100  10  10
MKL  75  39  50  24 /  80 100  10  10
JBR  73  34  50  27 / 100  40  10  10
TUP  77  44  53  28 /  70 100  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-152315-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1020 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE UNTIL 5 AM DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY
NOON TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE GREATEST THREATS. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. ALSO...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE TORNADOES. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EAST ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AROUND 4 OR 5 PM...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA BY ABOUT 9 PM ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RENCH/WAGNER