Tornado Warning 34, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
923 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.UPDATE...
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT...AND DONT SEE ANYTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THOSE SOON. IF
THERE ARE ANY UPDATES BEFORE NOON...THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE
TEMPERATURE RELATED...AS SOME AREAS CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN NW
ARKANSAS...BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FROM APPROACHING OUR
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 739 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005)

UPDATE TO GO HIGH RISK FOR ENTIRE MID-SOUTH AND ADD PDS TORNADO
WATCH 865...

..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

..HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH...
..PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH 865 UNTIL 5 PM CST
   FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH...
..WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH...

A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY...INITIATED
BY A STRONG 120 KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK NOW DROPPING INTO
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS JET
STREAK ROUNDS THE BEND AND EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS...THE REGION WILL BECOME LOCATED IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
SWINGS THROUGH IT WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER NORTH OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND FURTHER BACK SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES IT WILL HELP TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
OVER THE AREA...WHICH AS OF 09Z WAS ANALYZED AT 40 KTS PER THE OKO
WIND PROFILER. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
STRENGTHEN TO OVER 60 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MIXING TO
HEIGHTS WHERE THESE STRONG WINDS EXIST WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AREAWIDE TODAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SHEAR PROFILES TO
BE VERY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 150-300 M2/S2 AFTER 18Z. SO OVERALL VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES...WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY FORM AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED SEVERE SQUALL LINE.

THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
THIS MORNING...AS THE WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY IS NOW SITUATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE FURTHER NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AT 09Z WERE
AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG
AREAWIDE LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD OVER
THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MORE
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARM
SECTOR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THEM TO GAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH
AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG
TORNADO. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IT WILL HELP
TO DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT STILL VERY STRONG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP...WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS IN ANY PRONOUNCED BOW ECHOES
THAT CAN DEVELOP.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END ABRUPTLY AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD END BY EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RETURN FLOW OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SO THESE FRONTS WILL
SIMPLY SERVE TO REINFORCE COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME KILLING FREEZES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON SO PLAN NOW FOR
WHAT YOU WILL DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

WAGNER/JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1115 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-161500-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1115 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MISSOURI...WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN NOON
AND 4 PM...ACROSS FAR WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM.

SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH UNTIL 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF HARD FREEZES. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
GROWING SEASON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE VERY LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WAGNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
115 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HAIL             5 W MUNFORD             35.45N 89.89W
11/15/2005  1.00 INCH        TIPTON             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

1259 PM     HAIL             WEST MEMPHIS            35.15N 90.18W
11/15/2005  0.75 INCH        CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
121 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JOINER                  35.51N 90.15W
11/15/2005                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
11/15/2005                   LAWRENCE           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN, WINDOWS BLOWN OUT

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE FRIENDSHIP         35.94N 89.20W
11/15/2005                   CROCKETT           TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CARPORTS AND ROOFS DAMAGED

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
143 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     FRIENDSHIP              35.91N 89.24W
11/15/2005                   CROCKETT           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 MI EAST OF HWY 412 ON CROCKETT/DYER COUNTY LINE

&&

BLM