Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 170104
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
802 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TNC053-170200-
GIBSON TN-
802 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR GIBSON
COUNTY...

AT 801 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA. THE RAIN
WAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
DYER...EATON...RUTHERFORD...TRENTON...AND BRADFORD.

.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0
8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3600 8920 3584 8908 3591 8889 3604 8868
      3621 8895

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 170204
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
903 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TNC053-170213-
GIBSON TN-
903 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GIBSON COUNTY EXPIRED AT 900 PM CDT...

RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS GIBSON COUNTY. NO FLOODING HAS BEEN 
REPORTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR STANDING WATER...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 3600 8920 3584 8908 3591 8889 3604 8868
      3621 8895

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SFC PRES TROF HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING MORE BRIEF WITH
CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
WITHOUT ANY FEATURE TO ANCHOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS DIMINISHED.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE IMPRESSIVE...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN TEMPORARILY ANCHOR ON A
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THEN FLASH FLOODING PSBL.  CANNOT DETERMINE WHERE
THAT COULD BE AT THIS TIME...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR FLASH FLOODING.  DIURNAL TREND SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF
TSTMS BY MID EVENING.

BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  STILL A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WITH
SOME SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO THE SFC HI...TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONGER TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE GRTLKS STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH A
CDFNT INTO THE OH VLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY.  THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP THE POSSIBILITY FOR TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 (WED/SAT) THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS.  THE GFS GOES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
A UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.  TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVE A BUILDING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES.  THIS WOULD FAVOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  AS A
RESULT...LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR TSTMS.  WITH GREATER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS FCST DURING
THIS PERIOD...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

 BELLES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-
PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-
TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
404 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SLOW MOVING HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING
OCCURS OR WHERE ONE INCH OR GREATER HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
RECORDED.

WER