Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 162329
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TNC079-183-170115-
HENRY TN-WEAKLEY TN-
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR WEAKLEY AND
HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
DRESDEN...GREENFIELD...PARIS...PALMERSVILLE AND COTTAGE GROVE.

.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0
8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3608 8870 3615 8818 3649 8806 3649 8860
      3622 8896

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 170020
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
719 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TNC079-183-170115-
HENRY TN-WEAKLEY TN-
719 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR WEAKLEY AND
HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 718 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA. THE RAIN WAS GRADUALLY 
DIMINISHING BUT WAS MOVING ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREA THAT 
EXPERIENCED HEAVIER RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
DRESDEN...GLEASON...GREENFIELD...PARIS...PALMERSVILLE AND COTTAGE 
GROVE.

.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0
8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3608 8870 3615 8818 3649 8806 3649 8860
      3622 8896

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 170116
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
814 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TNC079-183-170124-
HENRY TN-WEAKLEY TN-
814 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEAKLEY AND HENRY COUNTIES EXPIRES AT
815 PM CDT...

RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS WEAKLEY AND HENRY 
COUNTIES. NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR STANDING 
WATER...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 3608 8870 3615 8818 3649 8806 3649 8860
      3622 8896

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SFC PRES TROF HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING MORE BRIEF WITH
CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
WITHOUT ANY FEATURE TO ANCHOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS DIMINISHED.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE IMPRESSIVE...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN TEMPORARILY ANCHOR ON A
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THEN FLASH FLOODING PSBL.  CANNOT DETERMINE WHERE
THAT COULD BE AT THIS TIME...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR FLASH FLOODING.  DIURNAL TREND SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF
TSTMS BY MID EVENING.

BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  STILL A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WITH
SOME SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO THE SFC HI...TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONGER TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE GRTLKS STATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH A
CDFNT INTO THE OH VLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY.  THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP THE POSSIBILITY FOR TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 (WED/SAT) THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS.  THE GFS GOES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
A UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.  TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVE A BUILDING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES.  THIS WOULD FAVOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  AS A
RESULT...LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR TSTMS.  WITH GREATER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS FCST DURING
THIS PERIOD...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

 BELLES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-
PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-
TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
404 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SLOW MOVING HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING
OCCURS OR WHERE ONE INCH OR GREATER HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
RECORDED.

WER