Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 232017
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

TXC443-232045-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050223T2045Z/
TERRELL-
213 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 245 PM CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY...

AT 211 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM IS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST 
OF THE INTERSECTION OF FARM AND MARKET ROAD 2400 AND 349.

ANYONE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO 
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS 
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... 
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER 
NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3057 10223 3047 10219 3046 10181 3059 10181
      3066 10202

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1029 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

.UPDATE...

HAVE SENT OUT UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005/

UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  VSBYS HAVE GONE
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND UPPER TRANS PECOS.  WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 AM CST.  PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.  20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS NEAR THE MIDLAND/ODESSA
AREA.  FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS AREA OF FOG FAIRLY WELL.
WILL INSERT AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  THE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT COVER A WIDE AREA JUST YET THIS MORNING...SO WE ARE HOLDING OFF
ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY LATER IF THE FOG
SPREADS TO MORE AREAS.

COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN TODAY OVER THE AREA.  NORTHEAST WINDS...LOW
CLOUDS...LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST FAIRLY DIFFICULT IN OUR AREA.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO SAG A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND
DAYTIME HEATING SLOW IT UP...AND MAYBE PUSH IT BACK NORTH A LITTLE
BIT LATER ON.  DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF MOVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
HOWEVER.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LOCATED ALONG
A WNW/ESE LINE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OR WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS.  THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM...BUT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THE EAST.  WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OF GREATER THAN 50 KTS EXPECTED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN NORTHWARD...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE.  LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.5 DEG C/KM...LIFTED INDICES
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO -5C...ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM...
THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE POPS GRIDS THROUGH THE ABOVE MENTIONED PERIOD...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS THURSDAY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW AFFECTING CA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

70/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
605 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-240947-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
605 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 (505 AM MST WED FEB 23 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS REGIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE PERMIAN BASIN...WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND TRANS
PECOS REGIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE...TO FORT STOCKTON...TO
SANDERSON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MAF