Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 232113
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
312 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

TXC443-232118-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-050223T2130Z/
TERRELL-
312 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 312 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXITED 
THE WARNED AREA.  THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.  HOWEVER... RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE 
AS HILLY TERRAIN IN THE AREA HAS BEEN INUNDATED WITH HEAVY RAIN.  
PLEASE REMAIN ALERT AND DRIVE SAFELY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3057 10188 3051 10196 3044 10193 3045 10173
      3052 10167 3062 10166

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE CALIFORNIA
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT.  THIS LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
EAST AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BENEATH THE MOJAVE LOW IS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL FORCING APPEARS TO
BE INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA...AND FAR
WEST TEXAS.  AT THE SURFACE...THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A TATUM...PECOS...FORT STOCKTON...TO
BALLINGER LINE.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH CLEARING SKIES
NOTED ELSEWHERE.  AMPLE SUN AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXPAND NORTH
AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INCREASES.
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL BUT THE SHEAR PROFILE DOES NOT
FAVOR ROTATING CONVECTION...NOR ARE THE MLCAPES IMPRESSIVE...WITH AT
MOST PERHAPS 500 J/KG INDICATED OVER EASTERN TERRELL COUNTY.  WHILE
LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...
BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
VEERED...THEREBY KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
CWFA.  GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...WE BELIEVE THAT A 3D MULTICELL MODE
WILL BE THE PREFERRED MODE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS...WHERE THE BEST
MIX OF BUOYANCY...SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXIST.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA AS
SURFACE COLD POOLS INCREASE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.  MEANWHILE THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME ACTIVE LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE
PRESSURES INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED AND BUOYANCY DECREASES.
OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES...INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RA/SHRA ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

BEST POPS TONIGHT WERE DRAWN IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC QPF PROGS BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.  ALL OTHER GRIDS
REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AS THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THEIR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH 24/12Z.

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND AN INTRUSION OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING THROUGH DAY 3.
MINOR EDITS WERE REQUIRED TO THE GOING FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDING A
GENERAL INCREASE IN POP/S AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ALIGNMENT AND
PHASE.

BY 12Z THURSDAY THE CLOSED SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL HAVE ONLY PROPAGATED AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. YET
FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE COMMENCING IN EARNEST AS
DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC/WAA PROCESSES COMBINE TO
WARRANT LIKELY CATEGORY POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO AND THE BEST FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB-FREEZING SATURATED COLUMNS OVER
NORTHERN TERRELL COUNTY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
TOP OF THE SATURATED COLUMNS COOLING TO NEAR -20 DEGREES C BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME GIVEN BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

LITTLE/NO FORECAST CHANGES BEYOND DAY 3 THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              39  45  34  46 /  60  50  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                41  43  33  46 /  50  70  60  30
DRYDEN TX                  51  53  40  51 /  60  50  40  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  48  37  50 /  60  60  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  42  31  46 /  40  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   40  44  32  45 /  60  70  60  30
MARFA TX                   41  51  33  50 /  40  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  46  34  47 /  60  50  40  50
ODESSA TX                  39  46  34  47 /  60  50  40  50
WINK TX                    43  47  36  50 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

70/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-241952-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
200 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 (100 PM MST WED FEB 23 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...THE PERMIAN BASIN...
AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS.  THIS SLIGHT
RISK AREA IS FOR THAT PART OF WEST TEXAS NORTH OF A SANDERSON
TO FORT STOCKTON LINE...AND SOUTH OF A FORT STOCKTON...ODESSA...
TO COLORADO CITY LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND RESULT IN NO ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE...
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED THIS EVENING FROM THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST
TEXAS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MAF