Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 260802
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
258 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

TXC165-260830-
GAINES-
258 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
GAINES COUNTY...

STREET FLOODING IN SEMINOLE HAS IMPROVED.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY 
MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE MORNING THUS CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3295 10232 3295 10277 3264 10274 3273 10231

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED THE ZONE TEXT AND GRIDS BEFORE TRANSMISSION TO INCLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX #333 UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GLASS
MOUNTAINS/STOCKTON PLATEAU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S SOUTHERN PLAINS MCS HAS PUSHED
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THESE AREAS.  AS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS...THE CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AS A COMBINATION OF HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND IT...WILL ALLOW FOR THIS.  ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8.5 C/KM...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN
THESE LOCALES AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THEY INCREASE TO
25 TO 35 KT.  THEN AGAIN...WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO PUT
OUT STRONG WINDS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVELS.

WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT AND WILL SHUNT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  AT THE SURFACE...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND WAS ON THE VERGE
OF PASSING THROUGH THE KDHT AREA AT 25/18Z.  THE FRONT IS FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PROGS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE...PROBABLY DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM
A CENTRAL PLAINS NOCTURNAL MCS.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO COME CRASHING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.  CAPES OF 2500 TO
3000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -7 C WILL COINCIDE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM IN THESE AREAS.  0 TO 6 BULK SHEAR VECTORS
ARE PROGGED TO BE 35 TO 45 KT IN THESE SAME AREAS...ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS UNTIL 26/06Z.  STILL
THINK WE COULD SEE QUITE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING...THEN ADVECT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING IN REGION OF GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW...AND TRACK SOUTH/
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MAF CWA.  IF THIS MCS DEVELOPS...NOT CERTAIN
WE/LL SEE MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE CWA.
BUT...SINCE THERE MAY BE QUITE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR IT TO
INTERSECT WITH FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SEVERE WORDING FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND EXPECTED TO RISE A LITTLE MORE.  THIS
YIELDS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR 1.5 INCHES.  WILL MENTION
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES...AND INCLUDE MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE HWO.

LASTLY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
TIGHT.  TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO REACH
40 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OVER 55 MPH POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE...
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE
EVENING UNTIL MID MORNING THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH TO A BASICALLY AN ACTIVE PATTERN HAS BEGUN
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PAINTED THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXITING. THINKING THEIR WILL BE A
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER...
WITH ONLY 10-20 POPS WARRANTED.

ANTICIPATING ANOTHER COMPLEX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RECOVERY
AND HEATING WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH THE NEXT BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AND TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS. WENT HIGH CHANCE POPS
MANY AREAS...TRANSITION INTO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED CLOSER
TO EVENT.

WENT WITH 20-30 POPS SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A 500 MILLIBAR
TROUGH AXIS AND NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PAINTED
THE BEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
WHERE THE FRONT HAS BEST CHANCE OF RESIDING AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THE LONGEST. BEYOND SATURDAY LOOKS ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
FRONT AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS AT THIS
TIME NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLED TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE IN WET REGIME AND FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 AM CDT
      THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
      EDDY COUNTY.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 AM CDT
      THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

67/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261929-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
314 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 (214 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS.  THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING...THURSDAY MORNING AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  SINCE THE
GROUND MAY STILL BE SATURATED FROM RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND SPOOTER GROUPS
SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
935 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             9 E ST. LAWRENCE        31.70N 101.39W
05/25/2005  0.88 INCH        GLASSCOCK          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL HAIL FELL FROM 712PM UNTIL 730PM.

0730 PM     HAIL             3 E ST. LAWRENCE        31.70N 101.49W
05/25/2005  1.25 INCH        GLASSCOCK          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE HAD REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 1
            INCH DEEP EAST OF ST. LAWRENCE

0843 PM     HAIL             15 WNW ST. LAWRENCE     31.78N 101.78W
05/25/2005  0.75 INCH        MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY HAIL FELL ON THE MIDLAND/GLASSCOCK COUNTY LINE ON
            FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1379

0910 PM     HAIL             GARDEN CITY             31.87N 101.48W
05/25/2005  0.88 INCH        GLASSCOCK          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL
            FALLING IN GARDEN CITY.

0843 PM     HAIL             12 SSE SPRABERRY        31.77N 101.75W
05/25/2005  0.75 INCH        GLASSCOCK          TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE MIDLAND/GLASSCOCK COUNTY
            LINE AT FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1379

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IMPERIAL                31.27N 102.69W
05/25/2005                   PECOS              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LOCAL VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED SEVERAL 250
            GALLON DIESEL TANKS BLOWN OVER AND A TRAMPOLINE THAT WAS
            BLOWN ONTO A HOUSE.

0734 PM     HAIL             MCCAMEY                 31.13N 102.22W
05/25/2005  0.75 INCH        UPTON              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

RGOULD