Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...EXCEPT
IT IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND STILL HOT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT AROUND 105 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED AGAINST
A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SYSTEMS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN GENERAL...STORMS WILL DEVELOP RANDOMLY...WITH SPOTTY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN CONCERN.

BY THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH
THE HEAT RETURNING. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL BE CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN...SO A CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL WORK ON SURFACE MOISTURE LATE IN THE
PERIOD...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DAY6 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ON
DAY7. (32)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  92  72 /  30  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       86  66  87  65 /  40  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  73  94  72 /  30  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     97  74  94  74 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  66  87  65 /  40  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     98  75  95  75 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         94  72  91  71 /  30  30  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      94  73  94  71 /  30  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  70  91  70 /  30  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM....32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED. LOCALLY RAIN IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 230 AND AND 730 PM.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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