Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A MENA TO
STUTTGART LINE. LARGE H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A BLOCKING MECHANISM TO THE
SYSTEM...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY INVOF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON...
LARGELY DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM REMNANTS OF MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV
OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THEN AS UPPER TROF MOVES IN
FROM OKLAHOMA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO RE-FIRE NEAR CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE MORNING. SAME SCENARIO LIKELY
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.

FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR
ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE SLOW-MOVING OR STALL OUT ALL TOGETHER...REPEATING THE PATTERN
OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  92  73  93 /  50  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       65  84  66  87 /  50  20  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  92  73  94 /  50  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  92  72  92 /  40  40  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  83  64  88 /  50  20  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     74  94  73  94 /  40  40  20  20
SEARCY AR         71  90  72  93 /  50  30  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  91  71  93 /  50  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  89  71  93 /  50  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED. LOCALLY RAIN IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 230 AND AND 730 PM.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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