Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION SLOW TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS/FEW STORMS
BEGINNING TO POP UP IN NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS. APPEARS THAT
MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM HARDY TO HEBER SPRINGS...
MORRILTON AND MENA. PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG/NEAR THIS
AXIS...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE ISOLATED TOWARD NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

MORNING LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING INDICATING LITTLE/NO CELL MOVEMENT
TODAY...SO PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME SPOTS TO THE TUNE
OF OVER AN INCH.

UPDATED FORECAST TO LESSEN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS STORMS DEVELOP. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLOW ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO SHOWED MORE OF
A TREND FROM NO PRECIPITATION TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE POP GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...APPEARS THAT GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. (46)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST SFC DATA...APPEARS
THAT THE WEAK FNTL BNDRY LIES ROUGHLY FROM W-CNTRL BACK INTO NERN AR
ATTM. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED ARND MIDNIGHT VCNTY
OF THE BNDRY...BUT DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MRNG. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH QPF FIELDS THIS MRNG...SO WL USE
THE DRIER RUC FOR POP TRENDS THIS MRNG.

LTL OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE UPPER LVLS WL RMN STAGNANT ACRS THE MID SOUTH AS MAIN
UPPER STORM TRACK RMNS OVR THE NRN PART OF THE NATION. THE WEAK
UPPER TROF IN PLACE OVR THE SRN PLAINS WL KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED OVR
THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE FNTL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOLY SWD THRU THE WEEKEND. WL
KEEP SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FCST VCNTY OF THE FNT. BULK OF
CONVECTION WL RMN DIURNAL AND HAVE INDCD THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
TEMPS WL BE HELD DOWN WITH ADDED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS.

GFS CONTS TO INDC A ANOTHER UPPER SYS WORKING THRU THE AREA ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE. PLAN TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE DRIER ETA FOR
NOW. THUS...WL KEEP POPS GOING /CHC CAT/ THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS LOW WILL
MEANDER OVER THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST SECTIONS OF MY
CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46

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